The crisis of the world economy requires peace in Ukraine

In Brussels, the European Union agreed ban up to 90% of Russian oil destined for the European market by the end of this year.

In May, around 500,000 barrels of oil a day arrived from Russia to Europe, which means a third of those who entered before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 of this year.

This happens when the price of a barrel (Brent) rises to 120 dollars on the world market, while the value of a barrel of Ural (Russian measure equivalent to Brent) reaches 93 dollars. Which represents a discount of nearly US $ 30. The Ural is the price at which Russia sells crude oil to China and India, among others.

Immediately following Europe’s decision to ban oil imports from Russia, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, one of the top 3 investment funds in the US and the world, warned that “A hurricane” is approaching in the international financial system.which could also be “… a Superstorm Sandy”, the catastrophe that hit the states of the Gulf of Mexico in 2021 and that destroyed vast regions of Louisiana, in the worst storm in North American history.

In the same presentation, Dimon said the price of oil could rise to $ 175 per barrel by the end of the year, an increase of more than 40% from current levels.

This implies only one thing: a deep recession is approaching in the United States and the world economy in 2022/2023.

This situation derives directly from the war in Ukraine, combined with the international sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and Great Britain, which constitute a single systemic whole in relation to the world economy.

In the same week that Dimon issued his “weather” warning, President Joe Biden provided Ukraine with a missile system with a range of between 80 and 500 kilometerscalled Himars, equipped with high-precision ammunition capable of hitting targets no more than 70 kilometers away, with the commitment of Ukrainian President Zelenski not to use them against Russian territory.

Russia assumes it the conflict in Ukraine has turned into a long-term global war, which the US and NATO are deploying against itand in which the role played by the Ukrainian forces is subordinate and accessory within the US strategic offensive.

For this he adopted a defensive strategy, aimed at consolidating positions in south-east Ukrainefocused on the Donbass region, where over 80% of the population speaks Russian.

As part of this defensive strategy, Russia is developing an offensive aimed at encircling Ukrainian forces located between the Dnieper and Donbass, an operation that is unfolding near the Russian border and which appears to be in its final phase.

Put in it assumes that time as a strategic factor works in its favor, and it does it in 2 dimensions. The first is Europe where France, Germany and Italy signal that the time has come to end the war, which has unleashed three major “catastrophes” in the world economy – the food, energy and inflationary crisis -; and for this it is necessary to negotiate with Russia, recognizing the legitimacy of its security interests vis-à-vis Ukraine; and the second, and truly decisive, is the United States – the very epicenter of this global war is there – where President Biden is the weakest commander-in-chief in American history in a conflict of this kind.

In the strategically defensive position taken by Russia in Ukraine is the commitment taken by Putin on May 9 (anniversary of the defeat of the Third Reich) to systematically avoid the outbreak of a third world war due to the direct military confrontation between Russia and the United States …, the 2 major nuclear powers in the world.

This is why Putin bets on time as a strategic factor, which implies, first of all, the recovery of the legacy of General De Gaulle in Europe (strategic autonomy from the USA).

But the key to this 21st-century First World War is in the United States, where the key indicator is an annual inflation level of 8.3% in April and 8.5% in March, the highest of all. last 40 years.

“War is the mother of all things” and it is what drives the great changes in the world, which by definition always have a qualitative character. This means that history seeks above all unity after a phase of exacerbated contradiction such as that of the war in Ukraine.

The global order based on NATO military might that reigned in Europe until February 24 of this year is dead, although not yet buried.

The next step is to negotiate a way outnecessarily imperfect, temporary, fragile, but always oriented to the future (the past is past and does not come back).

The important is discover the meaning of thingsthe course of events, the vector that channels the energy of human events.

“The best thing that statesmen have is their instincts,” says Ernst Junger. This is what Ukraine is talking about today.