Inflation-linked securities are shaking: they recommend caution to savers

The collapse of pesos bonds in recent days has put one of the leading investors in check that savers and investors have found this year: inflation-linked bonds. Despite the certainty that prices will continue their dizzying pace, index-linked stocks are now in doubt and City experts are once again suggesting dollarization strategies.

For Delphos analysts, one of the reasons for the current market instability was that the players were “overbought”.

“In hindsight we can see a small “bubble” in the CER debt market between November 2021 and March of this year. Over this period, interest rates on these bonds have fallen well below the recent average with long bonds around 5%, while the roll-over of the treasury has remained around 150%, mainly based on the placement of these bonds. ” , they explained.

The biggest fear in the market these days is a redefinition of debt into pesos, similar to that used by former finance minister of macrism Hernán Lacunza, in 2019. The current government must give clear signals to dispel these doubts as soon as possible. . and in the middle, the common recommendation of market analysts is caution.

“It is impossible to anticipate the results, since there are many possible scenarios. Perhaps the current government will rule out a credit event in the peso segment in the short term, although it would not prevent this from happening in the next two years. Furthermore, it could happen that the government shows strong signals to regain the confidence of private sector investors through coordinated action, “they said in TSA Bursátil.

“Rather than trying to get it right in the short term scenario, in the current context proper risk assessment and management is important “the analysts of the stock exchange company explained, who advised: “review current positions in CERs to study the possibility of migrating to dollar-linked assets “.

Juan Manuel Franco, of the SBS Group, stressed that the real test of the market will be at the end of the month, as this Tuesday’s Treasury tender is not demanding: “Here’s whywe prefer to wait to see the dynamics of the next few days to evaluate the strategies in pesos “said the economist.

In an economy surrounded by the foreign exchange trap, there aren’t many options for companies to funnel excess pesos into a profitable option in the face of inflationary erosion.

In this sense, the administrators of the mutual funds Mega Inver and Quinquela explain: “The options for pesos continue to be limited, especially due to the surplus liquidity of the corporate sector. However, in recent days there has been a greater preference for liquidity. The additional challenge is time “.

For these analysts, bonds linked to devaluation, the tied dollar could regain attractiveness in this context. “We do not exclude that other types of debt (Dollar Linked) appear again in the menu offered by the Secretary of Finance. Under current conditions, a maturity rollover close to 100% on average could be seen as an acceptable situation in the short term, “said analysts at Delphos.