The Central Bank needs to buy $ 190 million a day to reach the target agreed with the IMF

Eleven wheels are missing at the end of the month and the forecasts for the Central Bank are increasingly adverse. Although the dollar supply is high, the intensity of the demand does not allow the monetary authority to obtain the foreign currency it needs strengthen its position and at the same time achieve the objectives set out in the agreement with the Monetary Fund.

This in full market shock, on Monday the Central made the most important purchase of the month: took 25 million dollars of the single free trade market (MULC)), a figure that is overshadowed by the poor performance of the previous days. Until last Friday, in the first two weeks of June, she had barely pocketed $ 27 million.

“The accumulation of reserves by the BCRA continues at critical levels,” says consultancy Invecq, which estimates the level of net reserves – those that the monetary authority can actually use to intervene in the market – at around $ 2.8 billion.

The advisor specifies that the target agreed with the IMF for the first half, which will end in just 17 days, is reach $ 6,425 million in reserves. Otherwise, the country will be forced to apply for an exemption

Around the end of June, the Government will agree to the disbursement of 4 billion dollars from the IMF, but you have to allocate this amount $ 2.7 billion pay the upcoming deadlines with the agency itself.

For this reason, Invecq estimates that they will reach the goal set with the IMF “in the absence of extraordinary payments from other international organizations, it would only be possible to capture more than $ 190 million a daywhich almost definitively condemns the violation of this objective “.

“The events of these days show that the loss of monetary policy tools is now adding to the lack of trust and credibility in the authorities of the Bkra and the Ministry of Economy”, indicate from the consulting firm.

The more of 15 billion dollars that the exporters that have entered so far this year have been mainly in the payment of imports, in the greater expenditure in the purchase of energy and in expenses related to tourism, which In May alone, he requested $ 500 million.

“It is clear that dollar bonds are no longer effective at containing parallel price hikes, price controls do not reduce inflation, and now CER bonds, almost the only tool with which the government could capture pesos. , nor will they be enough to attract the total amount of funds needed “, slipped Invecq.

AQ