Alternative dollars are increasing.
After yesterday’s strong rally, alternative dollars maintain their uptrend this Tuesday. The blue dollar rises by four pesos to 220. The same path followed by financial dollars: cash with liquidity or CCL, the one used by companies, rises to $ 238while the MEP listed on the Buenos Aires stock exchange advances $ 230.
With this adjustment, both the MEP and the CCL have established nominal records. And they are close to the rate that the official dollar carries: while the wholesaler has increased its price in the Single Exchange by 18.1%, the CCL is at 17.8%.
Cash with liqui went from $ 210 to $ 227 in less than a week, in what was the fourth fastest rise in the past four years.
In the case of the blue dollar, the advance is still scarce: it opened the year at 206 dollars and moved just 8%. It has not yet broken the previous record, the $ 223 it reached at the end of January. when there was uncertainty about the possibility of an agreement with the Monetary Fund.
end of the summer
The alternative dollars awakened towards the end of last week after a summer that lasted between February and May and which kept them well below the official dollar and inflation, which in the first five months of the year rose by almost. 29%. This afternoon INDEC will release the official May number, which would be around 5.5%.
Now these dollars are rising because last week’s investors put an end to the financial cycle they had embarked on in recent months and which consisted of buying CER-adjusted pesos bonds (i.e. inflation index) and leverage to make a difference since the alternative dollars were stable.
But something clicked last week when institutional investors started selling these bonds out of fear putting together a ball of inflation-adjusted deadlines that the government cannot control. And those pesos went to seek refuge in the dollar, which explains the jump in prices.
This afternoon the Ministry of Economy will hold a tender for the debt 11 billion dollarswhere the market will be able to verify whether Minister Martín Guzmán is willing to raise the rate on these bonds to prevent the bleeding from continuing and obtain the refinancing he needs to cover his fiscal needs.
In this tense environment, the Central Bank continues to find it difficult to add reserves. So far in June and on the eve of the end of the quarter with the highest liquidation by agro-exporters, I barely add 52 million dollarswhich jeopardizes the achievement of the objectives agreed with the Monetary Fund.
In the rest of June – only 11 wheels – the entity headed by Miguel Pesce is expected to buy $ 190 million daily to cover the target set with the IMF. This increases the chances that the government will have to ask for a waiver for not being able to comply with the agreement.
The wholesale dollar rises 22 cents on open and is trading at $ 122.5. With the jump of the blues in the last few days, the exchange rate gap widens again to 80%.
The savings dollar, the one bought by those who can access the share of 200 dollars a month, is sold on average by banks $ 211. In this way, in a few days this dollar went from being the most expensive on the market to being the cheapest among the alternatives available to savers.
AQ
Annabella Quiroga
Source: Clarin
