The blue dollar falls.
After the strong rally on Monday and Tuesday, the dollars take a break on Wednesday. The blue dollar drops three pesos and gives in to $ 221. Financial dollars go up: cash with liqui or CCLthat used by companies reaches 239.7 dollars, while the MEP which is listed on the Buenos Aires stock exchange advanced to 232 dollars.
For analysts, today’s drop in blue is a consequence of very few transactions are recorded to this wheel, still under the impact of yesterday’s rises. “After a high jump, everything tends to freeze,” they point out. Yesterday casual went from $ 216 to $ 224 on a single wheel.
The increase that alternative dollars had undergone in recent days was the most marked by the devaluation of August 2018 (25.5%), the post-presidential devaluation of PASO in August 2019 (32.9%) and the start of the quarantine. as of April 2020 (19.5%). %), indicated by Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
With the blue dollar at $ 221, the currency gap drops to 79% after hitting 83% yesterday.
In any case, what remains unchanged is the 95% gap with liqui, which brings it dangerously close to 100%. «It is worth remembering that when the gap exceeds this threshold, fears of a decent jump of the dollar in the official market awaken, even if the government seems convinced that it is the last standard to yield. The scenario is very different from the previous year, when the ruling party was facing the end of the dense harvest with a gap that exceeded just 70% “, indicate from the PPI.
In the case of the blue dollar, despite the jump, it is still behind inflation: it opened the year at $ 206 and moved just 8%. Thus, yesterday it broke its previous record, the $ 223 it had hit in late January when there was uncertainty about the possibility of an agreement with the Monetary Fund.
Alternative dollars awakened at the end of last week after a summer that lasted between February and May and which kept them well below the official dollar and inflation, which climbed 29.3% in the first five months of the year. .
Now these dollars are rising because last week’s investors put an end to the financial cycle they had embarked on in recent months and which consisted of buying CER-adjusted pesos bonds (i.e. inflation index) and leverage to make a difference since the alternative dollars were stable.
But something broke a few days ago when institutional investors began mass selling these stocks, fearing them putting together a ball of inflation-adjusted deadlines that the government cannot control. And those pesos went to seek refuge in the dollar, which explains the jump in prices.
“The collapse of the pesos debt market, in particular with CER bonds, was very strong. This is the consequence of the dollarization process that the market is experiencing”, analyst Gustavo Neffa, of Research for Traders.
In this round, CER bonds slow their decline, while dollar bonds are mixed. This allows country risk to return 0.2%. 2121 basis points.
AQ
Annabella Quiroga
Source: Clarin
