Scioli denied a tighter trap but spoke of more controls on reserves

Aware of the renewed pressures Reservationsthe exchange rate gap and the reduction of the trade surplusthe government is determined to stop “speculative maneuvers” with more demanding control of dollar purchases for imports. This is the strategy that the economic team has agreed in the last few hours with the arrival of Daniele Scioli to the Ministry of Productive Development to replace Matías Kulfas and the definition of new measures still under study.

“Many times there is uncertainty about reserves, today, monthly imports exceed 7,000 million dollarsthere is no trap but one responsible administration“Scioli said at a press conference, after taking office as a minister in an act together with the President at the Bicentennial Museum, where he was accompanied by cabinet, governors, businessmen and trade unionists.

The former ambassador of Brazil analyzed Tuesday evening with the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán and the head of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce, the state of reserves. The data that triggered the alarms were i imports for 7,800 million dollars in May, the highest level since 2021, compared to $ 8.2 billion in exports. This leaves a trade balance of $ 400 million, well down from $ 1.4 billion in April.

“It was a meeting of coordination to continue this path of growth, be careful that there are no speculative maneuvers, many times it happens when there is a gap, then you have to set priorities “said the new minister. And he added: “It is not that I exclude it (the shares), nor is it being examined by the president of the Central Bank or the Minister of Economy, but rather it is managing reserves responsibly by importing what our factories need ”.

Despite the deepening of the discipline by Productive Development, BCRA and AFIP under the vigil of the Economy, the government is finding it increasingly difficult to accumulate reserves and achieve the goal agreed with the IMF. Central had to sell $ 140 million on Wednesday to cover market demand in the face of rising energy and gas imports, after losing $ 60 million the previous day. Thus, in the first fortnight of June there was a red close to 150 million dollars.

One of the items that increases imports is that of Power due to the increased purchases of fuel due to the winter and the increase in global prices following the war in Ukraine. From January to June 14, those purchases accumulated $ 5.8 billions, according to official data. In government offices they ensure that this object will not be touched. Not even that of card consumption abroad, given its limited impact on accounts. The magnifying glass will be in the industry.

In the economic team, they ensure that there was a “excess” in the purchase of intermediate and consumer goods because importers expect inventories to access an official “cheap” dollar and shed pesos in the face of the widening gap, which exceeded 80% this week and revived higher expectations of devaluation. Now, Guzmán, Scioli and Pesce are expected to advance in the measures that the Prime Minister anticipated on Wednesday, Giovanni Manzurafter a cabinet meeting in La Rosada.

as far as he could tell Clarioneis the former governor of Buenos Aires particularly concerned about the deficit with Brazil, the main trading partner of Argentina. The bilateral balance accumulated between January and May was negative for 1,095 million dollars, practically tripling the deficit of the same period of 2021. And the expectation is that the imbalance in the trade balance with the neighboring country will worsen. For this reason, the minister has already started talks with the main companies with investments in both countries.

For now, the board of directors of the central bank will formalize this Thursday the new foreign exchange administration regime in the automotive sector, an agreement reached in May in which terminals will lend dollars to their parts suppliers, without depending on monetary authority. Since this is a loss-making article, the producers have accepted this mechanism in order not to be subjected to new restrictions. On the other hand, it will also be defined whether a new rate hike will be applied.

The IMF asked in the latest review that progress be made on this path and that the increase in the exchange rate be accelerated.

Scioli’s challenge will be to manage a scenario characterized by high inflation, exchange rate pressures and fewer reserves. His arrival generates expectations in the business world, but also uncertainty. For these hours, supply producers warn that they are “eating” the quota to be imported and this will affect the level of activity. From the UIA, the Central Bank is reported above all for its incorporation into the Comprehensive Import Monitoring System (SIMI) from March, adding further constraints to the payment of imports.