Imports and stocks: the government is now talking about establishing “priorities” for accessing the dollar

worried about growth reserve drain and the record increase of imports, the government ruled out a tightening of inventories, but acknowledged that it will settle “priority” authorizing imports amid rumors that there will be greater restrictions and difficulties in the accumulation of foreign currency, one of the goals agreed with the IMF, which has been complicated by purchases of fuel and the delay in export agreements.

“A trap or a super trap is not in evaluation”Sources of the Ministry of Economy pointed out this Thursday before the consultation of Clarione. wallets, Martin Guzman, analyzed on Tuesday evening together with the president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesceand the new Minister of Productive Development, Daniele Sciolithe reserve position from May’s record rise in imports to $ 7.8 billion, the highest level since 2011.

After taking over from Matías Kulfas, Scioli took aim on Wednesday against the “speculative maneuvers” on imports and provided for a “responsible” administration. In the team of him exclude the study of the requirement of a with prior authorization for all operations, but make sure that priority will be given to “productive assets” fre shopping to take advantage of currency gapwhich this Thursday reached 100%.

Today, any import must go through the Comprehensive Import Monitoring System (SIMI), a scheme created in 2017 with alleged statistical purposes within which the Ministry of Commerce, Industry, AFIP, and the Central Bank intervene from March. The monetary authority has included a category B within the SIMI, which entailed greater restrictions on the payment of transactions with automatic licenses.

It is not yet clear which tap will be closed further. In official dispatches they assure it energy imports will not be affected, which totaled $ 5,800 million in the year, according to official calculations. Credit card consumption abroad will also not be affected. For now, the BCRA has announced a new scheme in the automotive sector, whereby terminals will give dollars to their suppliers on a voluntary basis.

Despite increasing controls, the Economy recognizes that the spike in fuel prices due to the war in Ukraine and the winter had an impact on the foreign exchange market. The Central Bank sold another $ 200 million this Thursday to cover market demand, after selling another $ 200 million between Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, in June, the balance was negative by $ 400 million, while only $ 700 million was accumulated in the year.

The other obstacle, according to Guzmán’s portfolio, is the delay in the clearance of exports. “Even though we have a high level of dollar deals, the sales of the soybean export complex are delayed and a transportation shutdown occurred in April,” they point out. But now, after raising the benchmark rate from 49% to 52% (67%, annual effective rate), they believe the “incentives” to accelerate the supply of dollars.

The minister is betting on keeping the pace of the dollar rising behind inflation, without resorting to a sharp devaluation, a task complicated by exchange rate pressures (the CCL closed above $ 242 on Thursday and the equity dollar rose to 235. 09). The official expectation is that $ 500 million from multilateral organizations such as the IDB will come from July, a loan that has been delayed due to “documentation” problems, according to authorities.