They link the dollar and rates after the bond crisis heat-up by weight

“Argentina today has the best terms of trade in a decade“, says a report on the situation of the consultancy abeceb, but an annual inflation of 60.7% and a hot flash due to the decline in bonds in pesos prevents him from seeing.

The advantageous terms of trade (ratio between export and import prices that the country has to face) determine, according to the ratio, that if this coefficient “were not so favorable, probably the exchange policy there would be blew up a lot'”.

The exports and imports this year aim to be a record. Theis the first for soybeans to $ 650 a ton and the exception of international prices for wheat and maize; the latter, why purchases of gas on the boat they take most of the dollars from the Central Bank.

Between The missed opportunities of Argentina there is the impossibility of exploiting the export of energy from the Vaca Muerta fields when a barrel of oil hits record prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine defines a new energy framework for Europe and the West.

The outgoing former head of the gas pipeline execution unit Néstor Kirchner which would allow the use of gas Vaca Muerta, the devidista Antonio Pronsatocalculate it the country loses to get between US $ 3,000 and US $ 6,000 per minute due to delays in the construction of this work which, in turn, is delayed by internal strife and the lack of government enforcement.

To the Central Bank they owe once again count the dollars one by one and argue that they need to liquidate some of them $ 2,000 million of soybean exports which will be essential in order to be able to fulfill the external obligations of the second half of the year.

According to officials, the problem is that the delay in settlements is due they would be the producers and not the exporters those who sit on cereals waiting for a stabilization in the foreign exchange market.

The concept “cover” quickly gained space in financial expectation after the Desbarrancha the bonds in pesos last week, when official organizations went out to sell inflation-adjusted stocks and went wild doubts about the will of the government meet national currency debt commitments.

Minister Martín Guzmán has spoken out to make sure the government will not default the debt in pesos and has given to steer with a new hike in the interest rate in an attempt to decompress the foreign exchange market, which was already showing clear signs of seeking “hedging”.

When the dollar “counted with liquidation” (the companies target) it surpassed $ 240 and led the exchange gap with the wholesaler close to 100% criticalGuzmán had to go out look for silver in the market and clearly perceived what was happening.

The consultancy firm Equilibra de Bossio, Rapetti and Sigaut Gravina summarized it in a few lines. “First Treasury auction after the collapse of the debt market in pesos: the weighted average duration of the placement was 120 days (314 days in the previous auction) and Lecer (bills linked to inflation) paid real positive rates “.

Government had to pay higher rates to which to place bonds shorter terms and barely cover what was due, He hasn’t gained a single extra weight.

The Central Bank consolidated this rate hike by offering fixed-term retail depositors a rate of 4.4% per month (previously 4%) and bringing in the proceeds of Leliqs (liquidity securities used to absorb pesos from the market ) at 4.3% monthly.

Both rates are below inflationbut for the Central it makes sense: it wants that Guzmán is the one offering the highest returns take more pesos and ask you to issue less.

On the weekend, the head of the Central, Miguel Pesce, He said there has been speculative maneuvering with the peso-indexed bonds, but that the government has managed to stabilize the situation. The long weekend gave him a break, but the cover-up process appears to have started a path that would need strong signals to take a detour.