The blue dollar rises by four pesos and reaches 220 dollars

The blue dollar rose four pesos this Tuesday when it opened and reached $ 220 After last week’s swing, which hit $ 224 on Wednesday to end Thursday at $ 216, the informal account resumes its uptrend.

So far in June the blue dollar increased by fourteen pesos. He woke up two weeks ago after a nap that lasted between February and May with only occasional increases, which explains that throughout the year It has only increased by 6% from the level it had in early 2022.

The rebound of the last few weeks It is linked to the slippage of debts in pesos. CER bonds lost 15% of their price as institutional investors began exiting these placements fearing inflation-linked debt would become unmanageable for the government.

The pesos that came out of the bonds put pressure on the informal dollar and led to cash-in with liqui al $ 240an area where it was kept for a week.

In this round, inflation-linked bonds improve their price and pause to the downside, in a peace forced by the $ 300 trillion the Central Bank poured into the market to put a floor on CER bonds.

In this round, the MEP dollar, which is listed on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, returns 1.2%, a $ 230.5while cash with liqui, the one used by companies to withdraw foreign currency from the country, fell by 0.9%, to $ 240.16. During the month, the MEP increased by 11% and the CCL by 14%. So far this year they have increased by 16.5% and 18.8% respectively.

With these prices, the gap with respect to the official dollar, which is quoted $ 123.7 wholesale, it is 76% in the case of blue and 95% for cash with liqui.

In the case of the blue dollar, the trajectory was more volatile and moved from hitting $ 224 to a downside to $ 215.

lack of reserves

In this context, the Central Bank has tried to ease the pressure on alternative dollars with an interest rate increase from 49% to 53% to make pesos placements more attractive.

For the economist Salvador Di Stefano, “the government does not have sufficient reserves to contain alternative exchange rates, which is why the forward rate has risen to levels of 53% per annum. For the dollar to exceed the interest rate, it should trade well above $ 300 at the end of the year, it doesn’t seem impossible, but it seems unlikely. “

So far this month the Central has red numbers regarding the purchase of dollars and in the year it has only managed to add $ 900 million, which complicates reserves,

As for the informal dollars, he pointed out that “the breakeven dollar is $ 235, is somewhere between the settlement dollar value and the stock dollar or MEP. The blue dollar is still lagging behind due to the increased supply on the market. “

“The government should, in the coming months, reduce the fiscal deficit, if this does not happen we will revise the projections on the dollar price and on inflation upwards”, added Di Stéfano.

AQ