Energy and production goods account for almost 90% of total imports

The import festival that Cristina Kirchner talks about forces us to review the official statistics. In fact, in the first quarter of the year, purchases abroad increased by 33% measured in dollars compared to the same period last year, but the voice that grew the most was energy. Mainly oil (93.4%), electricity (420%) and gas (241.7%). For this reason, in the private sector they emphasize that the main responsible for the increase in imports is the state itself.

These conclusions emerge from a report drawn up by the consultancy company Eco Go on the basis of data from the Central Bank. The main one is that from January to April the goods entered for 21,869 million dollars, in contrast to 16,444 dollars in 2021. The net inter-year difference is US $ 5,425 million. Another relevant aspect is that consumer goods or finished products represent 11.6% of the total. The vast majority are inputs, components and equipment for manufacturing.

Despite the high rate of growth, the energy deficit is barely beginning to show itself, explains Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, economist of the consulting firm Equilibra. “From last year to the present, the red in the entry will go from $ 1,000 million to $ 6,700 million“, he said. This is due to the need to import larger volumes of fuel and also to the increase in international oil prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to EcoGo, oil imports were $ 2,133 million in the first quarter, which represents an increase of $ 1,030 million over the same period in 2021. The leap in electricity (generation, transportation and distribution) has been much greater. From one year to the next, it went from 269 million dollars to 1.396 million dollars. With gas it went from $ 23 million to $ 54 million. “But the biggest consumption occurs during the winter, between May and August, so the figure will increase in the coming months,” said Sigaut Gravina.

“The import festival”, according to Cristina, deserves other considerations and the post-pandemic economic reactivation has a lot to do with this. In 2021, purchases abroad of industrial products (parts, spare parts, intermediate products, machinery and metals, among others) amounted to $ 50.7 billion. Indeed, car manufacturers lead the ranking of imports. From January to April, they consumed nearly $ 3.1 billion, the Eco Go report says.

The increase in international prices (especially energy prices) is reflected in the statistics. Imports by volume (21.7%) increased but below the consumption of foreign currency (33%). “Imports measured in quantity, unlike values, are not recorded, even if for the first four months they are the second since 2018”, explains Santiago Romero Manoukian, of Ecolatina.

The level of the Central Bank’s reserves is worrying, despite the increase in international prices of products exported from Argentina. This greater entry of foreign currency into the coffers of the Central Bank, however, does not compensate for the enormous attraction that companies have to increase and anticipate purchases abroad. Romero Manoukian lists them: “Real exchange rate appreciation, high exchange rate gap, negative real rates and some input supply concerns.”

For Sigaut Gravina, importing goods is a great incentive and it is obvious because “it is the only thing you can buy in Argentina at the official dollar”. This does not happen with other services that require foreign currency, such as tourism and shopping abroad and also in the services of the global platform, like Netflix and Spotify. Staggered but relentlessly, the government charged new taxes to protect reserves.

The companies argue that the level of imports is reasonable and rule out a flurry of legal safeguards to unblock the entry of goods, Cristina reported on Monday. “All foreign trade operations are strictly controlled by the government. If there is or has been an advance in imports, it is because there is or has been bad management ”.

The level of reserves is the top priority for the government. The strengthening of inventories generates shortages of inputs and finished products in many items, including footwear and also the automotive industry. To avoid conflicts, the new Minister of Productive Development, Daniel Scioli, met yesterday with the directors of the Argentine Industrial Union. Although he denied the existence of “a trap or a super trap”, he warned that companies are anticipating imports.