The blue dollar rises to $ 225 and reaches a new high

The blue dollar rises by one peso this Friday and reaches $ 225. With this price, it sets a new record and reaches the highest level of the year. A) Yes, the gap with the wholesale dollar is 80% and places greater emphasis on economic variables.

The informal has recovered on this wheel after having remained stable yesterday. In the year shows an advance of 19 pesos or 9%, very far from the accumulated inflation which reaches 29% and the evolution of the rest of the dollars.

What advanced the most in the year was the official dollar, which increased by 19.5%, while financial dollars increased by 16%.

As blue goes up, financial dollars go down around 1%. The MEP dollar, which is listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, falls 1.2% and is less than $ 230, in $ 228.9.

For its part, cash with liquidity, the dollar used by companies, loses 1.5%, to catch up $ 233.8. This is the lowest price since June 10, when the rise in financial dollars started under the heat of the pesos that exited CER bonds and sought shelter in the hard currency.

The official dollar advances by 17 cents, $ 124.27 at the level of wholesalers. This brings the liquidity gap to 89%.

The dollar saved sells for $ 213 on average for banks, although due to the multiple restrictions in place, only 800,000 Argentines have access to this price. After the rally in alternative dollars in recent weeks, the savings dollar has consolidated as the cheapest on the market.

The rise in blue occurs at the same time as Argentine bonds continue to decline and country risk gains momentum. Dollar stocks are losing up to 4% and the JP Morgan indicator goes up 2313 basis points, the highest level in 23 months.

Many pesos and a few dollars

Despite the lull in financial dollars in the past few hours, the outlook indicates that liquidity will raise its head in the near term.

“The waters that will furrow the economic policy of the ruling party will be even more troubled in the second half: there will be a lot more pesos around and fewer dollars“, holds personal portfolio investments (PPI).

They detail that there will be more pesos because the Central Bank will have to issue to meet a fiscal deficit that typically doubles in the second half of the year, while there will be fewer dollars because the seasonality of agriculture will begin to decline in the second half.

Despite being in full harvest, Central has had to sell so far this month 414 million dollars in the single free trade market (MULC).

“It’s been nearly a semester and BCRA’s harvest is more than meager, with an accumulation of 417 million dollarsthe lowest of all years with stocks except 2020 ($ 70 million), “says PPI.

“It is worrying that between now and August the supply of agriculture will decrease and energy imports will continue to be high. The stock of net reserves, estimated at 3.080 million dollars, is already under pressure “, assure from PPI.

Another problem that will add pressure to the foreign exchange market is that the Bonares and Globales coupon will have to be paid on 9 July to $ 653 millionwhich would reduce the stock of reserves to US $ 2,400 million.

“As a result, we believe a new tourniquet to the exchange rate is imminent. Cash with liquids could withstand heavy pressure in the second half and the exchange rate gap would tend to widen “, they slip.

AQ