Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell opened the season of rate hikes and the end of cheap money around the world.
The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to cope with an annual inflation level of 8.6% in May, the highest increase in 40 years; and foresaw it this increase will be repeated at least 7 times this year and next.
This occurs with a US average fuel price of $ 5.1 per gallon (3.7 liters), reaching $ 8 per gallon in California, the largest state in the Union.
For its part, the food price index has risen by 12% over the past 12 months, the highest increase since April 1979.
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The key thing is to note that the US has entered a historic era of high interest rates, in which left behind one where the cost of borrowing was zero or less than zero. This is a global event.
Now a lifting cycle has been inaugurated which can last several years; and this happened in a context in which the rupture of the cooperation and coordination aspects of the globalization process that caused the war in Ukraine and trade sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and Great Britain have structurally reduced investment opportunities.
Inflation, relative prices and geopolitics
The central fact of the time is geopolitical in nature – the War in Ukraine – and it had an immediate effect extraordinary economic consequenceswhich triggered three very serious crises of global significance: food, energy and inflation; and the latter has now opened a new stage in world history, exemplified by the Federal Reserve’s decision to systematically raise the federal funds rate, accompanied by the US government’s essential strategy of use as a weapon of geopolitical conflict its domination over the international financial system, and above all its complete hegemony of the dollar, the global currency.
This occurs in the United States when the internal conflict has been exacerbated and the internal rift and polarization is the most severe in the history of the United States since the Civil War of 1861/1865; and according to the primordial criterion that gives things “… a dark harmony”, the intensification of the internal offer it happens when the American presidency in the hands of a Democratic leader, Joe Biden, is one of the weakest in its history; and this happens when, according to all polls, Democrats are close to losing control of both Houses of Congress in November of this year, probably overwhelmingly, without which it is not possible to govern North American democracy.
Everything indicates that in The United States has begun a phase of irreversible historical changewhose consequences could be similar in the next 4/8 years to those caused by the end of the Civil War on 9 April 1865, with the surrender of General Robert E. Lee at Appomattox.
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At stake in the United States – and in the world – is a change of era, as anticipated by Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter, the largest digital intercommunication platform in the global system, which overturns the current monopoly. , which grants a power superior to any other in the economy or the state.
The rupture of the globalization process also implies the end, at least temporarily, of the economic convergence of emerging countries towards the advanced world (“Recovery”), which has allowed them to reach the standard of living in the epic of the last 40 years, all accompanied by a structural decrease in the growth capacity of the whole.
The core of this situation is this: the United States, the world’s first and most advanced superpower, it has entered a phase of profound internal contradiction, high interest rates and a deep recession in 2022/2023; and the only way you can respond to this huge challenge is through a profound and complete domestic transformation.
This will certainly be done drawing on its exceptional innovation resources, which will probably take place in two directions: downwards, accentuating its historical vocation for “local democracy” and decentralization; and upwards, calling the nation into a phase of emergency that multiplies fiscal, fiscal and cultural incentives for creativity, productivity and the pursuit of commercial profits, which is the hallmark of American culture, the border country in which they exist only to be overcome.
The exceptional dynamism of North American capitalism it comes from a single factor, which is the aptitude for “creative destruction”, which consists in placing innovation and knowledge at the center of the production process.
is approx a deeply Darwinian urge to destroy the old and create the newthe more intense it is, the faster the process of economic expansion will be.
It is at stake in the United States – the end of the latent Civil War of the past 6 years – with the Federal Reserve’s rate hike of 0.75 percentage points, which you are done with the easy and convenient money phase in the great American power and in the world.
The Fed raised rates by 0.75 points – the biggest hike since 1994
Jorge Castro
Source: Clarin