They expect inflation in June to be over 5% and higher than in May

If we respect the advances of private analysts, June inflation will stop the downtrend that the price index had shown in the past two months.

The record in March reached 6.7%, 6% in June and 5.1% in May. For this month projections range from 5 to 5.4%.

The survey on market expectations carried out by the Central Bank places inflation in June at 5% and at 72.6% for the whole year.

In the basket of increases in June, the increases in electricity by 16.5% and those in gas ranging from 18 to 25% should be noted. In addition, prepaid companies are calculated with an increase of 10%, schools in the province of Buenos Aires with 8% and diesel with 12%.

It includes the EcoGo consultancy directed by Marina Dal Poggetto a price index of 5.2% for June. Within this result, a fundamental role is played by foodstuffs, which in the month of this survey grew by 4.8%.

The estimate of the consultancy Ecolatina is that June inflation will be 5.3%. “For the first fifteen days our GBA IPC had marked 5.6% compared to the previous month. In this way in the first semester you would accumulate 36% in the first semester and 64% on an annual basis“.

Economist Santiago Manoukián underlines that “the crisis of the debt in pesos collaborates in the un-anchoring of the expectations in which economic agents are moving, increasing the expectations of devaluation and future emissions and penetrating prices through a higher forward gap. Added to this will be the effect of greater controls on imports, which would have two impacts: one on activity, the other on inflation “.

For July Ecolatina expects a price increase of 4.6%.

From Analytica, the inflation forecast for this month is 5.4%, with food also in that order. A “conservative” estimate of annual inflation puts it at 72%according to economist Ricardo Delgado.

Camilo Tiscornia of the consulting firm C&T expects inflation of 5% for June. The economist points out that the Central Bank’s announcements to further restrict imports and the resulting rise in alternative dollars will have an effect on prices. “These measures can hit inflation, because some things are likely to start buying in the liquidation cash dollar ($ 246) and eventually in blue ($ 232). These import controls certainly imply higher inflation“.

“June and July will likely be a little above 5%. If inflation is 4% per month through the end of the year, we could be below 80%. With a 5% monthly increase in the second. half, we are above 80 But no one guarantees that this will stabilize without an acceleration of the exchange rate, therefore there may be more inflationTiscornia points out.

Consulting firm LCG has measured a 5.3% increase in the price of food in the past four weeks. The most marked increases were in ready meals with 8.6%, followed by baked goods and pasta with 7.6% and dairy products and eggs with 6.2%. In fourth place drinks and infusions to be consumed at home with 5.2%, followed by meats with 4.5%, oils with 4.4% and vegetables with 3.3%.

The INDEC consumer price index will be released on 14 July. “We signaled that March would be the month of greatest inflation. By June we will have the conditions to lower inflation and we will need the attitude of the private market “, said Minister Martín Guzmán in statements to Radio Con Vos.

“We are building the conditions to attack inflation: having a macroeconomic policy that strengthens coherence, that there are dollars in the BCRA. Fiscal and monetary policy are auxiliary. We must attack the inertia component and it is a collective task, not just of of the government, but of the entrepreneurial leadership. The unions have had a collaborative attitude “, underlined the minister.

AQ