In the midst of the bond collapse, the government has to pay $ 700 million to those who signed up for the swap

In the midst of financial stress, the government’s economic team is bracing Make payment half-yearly coupon of bonds entered into debt swaps in 2020.

Next Saturday, July 9, Independence Day, the The Treasury will have to deliver around $ 700 million to its creditors.

While this is not a large amount for the government, the pledge must be fulfilled at a time Central Bank reserves are in the crosshairs.

In the Municipality they agree that the payment of this voucher is discounted by the market, but dollar bond prices and country risk level speak of a strong uncertainty among investors.

When only one wheel is missing at the end of the month, the dollar bonds resulting from the exchange led by Martín Guzmán in 2020, operate in minimum. The most affected are those of the longer term, for example the Bonar 2035, of local law, which already it sank by almost 22%.

PPI’s Gloria Patron Costas explained: “The Argentine globals have taken a hit in recent weeks and are about to close. the worst month since the renovation “.

For the analyst: “The adverse international environment is no longer enough to explain this performance. It is true that the more restrictive Fed (the central bank of the United States) and fears of a global recession have hit emerging markets. However, Argentine bonds. are found globally among the last in the standings“.

The worst in the region

While the emerging bonds index shows that the region’s government bonds have fallen nearly 17% since the start of the year, Argentines have lost up to 40% of their value since January.

Tomás Ruiz Palacios, from Consultatio, said: “What happened in June is that Argentina’s debt, which was more or less following the pace shown by the rest of the emerging countries, was decoupled.the punishment was much greater. “

Patron Costas stressed: “The stocks suffer from the lack of drivers on the local. The deterioration of tax numberswith a deficit of 0.25% of GDP in May, the expansionary monetary dynamics and the lack of accumulation of foreign exchange question the achievement of objectives with the IMF “.

After accumulating steep falls that led to country risk breaking the 2,500 point barrier on Tuesday, bonds rebounded. This Wednesday they have lengthened the heights, even if in the Municipality they warn that they are “from the underground”.

Juan José Vazquez, of Cohen, pointed out: “The fact that the Central Bank was able to purchase $ 583 million of the $ 685 million operated in the MULC, from the shutdown of imports into the last stocks, may have helped margin, since then. gives some certainty that there will be dollars to pay for the coupon“.

For Ruiz Palacios, this week’s rebound was due to technical and non-fundamental factors. “Two large funds that still held positions in these bonds ended up leaving and that drives it up. But mistrust persists in the market and only a fiscal recovery plan could reverse it. “

In this sense, the patron Costas stated: “The market does not question the July disbursement (US $ 693 million) but closely follows the dynamics of reserves for next months. Concern is the lack of accumulation of foreign exchange in the MULC in full seasonality of the liquidation of agriculture. The BCR it only managed to reverse purchases at the expense of new import restrictions“.

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