Martín Guzmán has stepped down: they expect a Monday with a lot of volatility for the dollar and bonds

Martín Guzmán’s resignation from the Ministry of Economy will inevitably lead greater volatility in the financial market, punished in recent days by the surge in parallel dollars and by country at risk. On Saturday afternoon, the main analysts of the Municipality awaited the definitions on who will be his replacement, but agreed that the departure of the head of the Palacio de Hacienda is a bad signal for all financial variables.

The first reading by analysts is Monday’s exchange rate it would overheat again and that dollar-denominated debt securities could decline again. The government has a temporary advantage: Monday is vacation in the United States for the Independence Day, with which the local market will move without references.

With the markets closed for the weekend, the first reference to the behavior that the American currency will have after the resignation on which many agree was “the last bastion of Alberto Fernández in the Council of Ministers”, appears in the prices of the “crypto dollars”on major exchanges.

In less than three hours, on the Lemonthe price went from $ 243, for the purchase, to $ 253. On the Argentine stock exchange good At the close of this note, the DAI was available at over $ 259. Finally, on the exchange Binance the DAI traded for $ 270. These are P2P, person-to-person operations, the closest thing to a virtual tree.

At the money counter of a private bank they advanced: “Uncertainty it will add pressure to the official dollar and the rest of the exchange rates. The central bank will be forced to sell more reserves. “On Friday, the monetary authority interrupted a successful series of purchases it had obtained on the foreign exchange market after the establishment of the super-currency and it had to sell nearly $ 200 million.

One of the doubts of analysts in the last hours of Saturday is whether Miguel Pesce his post at the head of the Central Bank is assured. In Reconquista, 266 denied any kind of change in the leadership of the organization

Martín Guzmán’s replacement will not only have to deal with the uncertainty of the exchange rate, but also with the instability in the local debt market. “On Thursday and Friday everything was already calm in the pesos debt market, but we have to see how these changes affect the Ministry of Finance,” they said at a bank.

Analysts agree that the market will read this release as a strengthening of Christianity within the ruling coalition, something that will not be seen as a good sign. “A priori, his departure seems the last link for the arrival of hard Kirchnerism. Especially listening to the criticism of the Christian wing of the government that arrives for not having further explored the model,” said an executive of a financial company.

“Guzmán was the minister the market always wanted to believe in and the one who did the least to be believed”, He added. The fear of the markets is not only in what his resignation represents, but also in who will succeed him. “The market is wondering not only who will come, but what he will do. And above all, what is the degree of consensus that this name has within the different aspects of the ruling party,” said an analyst.

The Economist Fernando Marul, of FMy Asociados, explained: “Monday’s reaction will be defined when it is known which economic team will come. If it is more pro-market, the most anticipated is that the market reaction will not be as tough: the dollar could go up, the bonds fall, but not so much. Instead, if the replacement is a more radicalized team, given the economic context, we can see the dollar rise between 5% and 10% “.

These are hours of definition. A close economist said: “The uncertainty should dissipate tomorrow. If we get to Monday with the opening of the markets and this is not resolved, the reaction can be very harsh.”

On Friday, the blue dollar ended the week lower, having jumped to $ 13 in the past five rounds, and closed at $ 238. Financial dollars were down a notch as well, after climbing more than 20% in June and closed at $ 248 the MEP dollar and $ 252, the cash dollar on liquidation.

Country risk, which had crossed the 2,500 point barrier by mid-week, had fallen to 2,374.