The United States has entered a large-scale recession

The Federal Reserve it would raise the interest rate by 0.75% percentage points by the Federal Funds in July; and has already anticipated that it will raise them at least 7 more times in 2022 and 2023, up to 6% per annum (from the current 1.5% / 1.75% per annum), which is the extraordinary boom level it has reached. demand in the last 2 years.

This would bring the Federal Funds interest rate to 3.75% at the end of the year and end this new cycle on the upside with a level of 6% per annum in July 2023, which it would reduce demand – It is assumed – from 6% to 2% at the end of that period in December.

This would necessarily imply an increase in unemployment by at least 3 points; and this would happen when the current unemployment rate is 3.6%, the second lowest historical level of the last 60 years; and when earnings per hour of work grew 5.5% annually in Maywhich implies that they are 3 points below real wages due to an inflation level above 8% for the year.

It should be noted that the main restriction facing rising US demand today is that resulting from labor force constraints, due to the fact that Twice as many jobs are created as there are staff capable of filling them. Strictly speaking, there is no unemployment in the United States, but rather an over-employment situation. is a historical phenomenon of a new kind the North American experience.

The policy decided by the Federal Reserve is, in short, markedly recessive; and this would develop fully starting from the last quarter of this year, just when the American political system will find itself submerged a decisive phase of its functioningwhich is the one that establishes the control of the two Houses of Congress (Representatives and Senate), which will take place on the first Tuesday of November this year.

What is striking is that this situation occurred at a time of phenomenal boom in the world’s leading economy; and when it is the virtually exclusive cause of the inflationary crisis, now transformed into a deep recession a noticeable increase in fuel priceswhich brought them to $ 5 per gallon (3.7 liters) in the state average and more than $ 8 per gallon in California and the other Pacific states.

This phenomenon of general increase in the level of consumer prices It occurs throughout the advanced world, with a record inflation rate of 8.1% per annum in the German-led eurozone and 9.1% per annum in the UK.

What has caused this record high of fuel prices in the world is the break in the globalization process for the breakdown of all the cooperation and coordination mechanisms of the system, which is the direct consequence of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in the heart of Europe, transformed into a long-term global conflict, which the US and NATO have unleashed against Russia and China, and which is deployed both on the European continent and in Asia.

This contradicts the nature of 21st century globalized capitalismwhose structural fulcrum are the 88,000 global companies and their 600,000 associates and affiliates, absolutely instantly integrated by the technical revolution (especially digitalization).

In a supreme historical irony, the country most affected by this breakdown of globalization is the United States, the world’s first superpower and leader of advanced capitalism.

This is why they exist in the United States and in the world an increasing offer between the rupture forces based solely on geopolitical reasons on the one hand, and the forces of unity and integration rooted in technology, which are those of the capitalist system as a mechanism of global accumulation.

On background, this dispute is already resolved; and it is already known that history is not deterministic, but that there is a determinism in history; and that, in this confrontation, which takes place in the full unfolding of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the breaking forces will disappear like a leaf in the wind, and a footnote of the decisive events that have already happened, and of those who approach .

The next step for the US, which can last 4/8 years, is re-establish cooperation and coordination mechanisms in the world with the other world superpower, which is China, the “Middle Empire” of the 21st century; and in this way forge a new global order, capable of leading a fully integrated capitalism, and driven solely by knowledge and innovation. By the way, the competition between the superpowers will continue, but devoid of antagonistic content; and this is a fundamental difference, the one that exists between life and death.

There is no knowledge without empathy. That is why the US analysis is necessarily accompanied by intense admiration. United States of America it is not a weak and fragmented power, with a president, Joe Biden, unable to lead; and which in the strict sense already belongs to the past.