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Despite the bailout of the pesos bonds, which the Central Bank began in the middle of last month and which meant it had already spent more than $ 1 billion to buy bonds in the local market and thus support the prices of securities in the local market, the administrators of mutual funds they continued to disarm positions of pesos instruments. Monday and Tuesday only It was $ 75 billion. This Wednesday the rescue continued.
Faced with volatility, especially investors corporate treasury, they choose to sell their stake in a mutual fund and take your money. The duration of the accreditation will depend on the type of fund in which it was invested: there are extremely liquid funds, where credit is instantaneous, and others that allow you to withdraw the money in 24 or 48 hours.
On Monday, in the midst of the great economic and political uncertainty due to the arrival of Silvina Batakis in the place vacated by Martín Guzmán in the Palacio de Hacienda, managers saved $ 55,088 million, according to market data.
Unlike the previous one, money market funds, with instant liquidity, were the ones that had the largest outflow: more than 25,000 million dollars that came out of this type of vehicle in one day. But there was also strong outflows from funds known as T + 1who invest in fixed income and, to a lesser extent, in funds that invest half of their portfolio in index-linked assets.
This barrage of pesos in the street explains in part, the dollarizing demand, which led to all parallel exchange rates it peaked before Batakis assumed his role on Monday afternoon. The next day, despite the monetary authority intervening on several fronts to try to calm the waters, the management companies of the FCI again disarmed their positions, this time for a total amount of 25,000 million dollars.
In total, since the index-linked debt crisis began on 8 June, More than $ 440 billion has already left this sector.
“The central bank claims to support CER debt, but uncertainty affects all pesos bonds. This strategy does not serve to reverse expectations,” said an off market participant.
In addition to the direct impact of those pesos exiting the foreign exchange market, this BCRA strategy can affect inflation. Although what the agency issues to buy these bonds is reabsorbed through Leliq and repo, with a “neutral” inflationary effect, there is another risk.
“If the BCRA remains a relevant player, distributing investors from the peso, it is very likely that the Treasury will not be able to finance its primary deficit by placing debt in the capital market. In this situation, it has two options.” , quickly correct the imbalance (lower spending or raise taxes) or finance it through the issuance of BCRA, “they stressed in MegaQM.
Delphos analysts explained: “Somehow the BCRA is changing its bond holdings as the debt position in pesos, mainly CERs, grows and the stock of hard dollar securities shrinks. the operations of CCL and MEP dollars “. On Tuesday, the monetary authority tHe also intervened on the financial market to keep these prices at bay.
Ana Chiara Pedotti