The worst of the crisis today is in the struggle for power

There was always a huge, if ultimately predictable, risk in the merciless battle that Cristina Kirchner has undertaken against Alberto Fernández for power, for the resources of power and for the decisions of power. That is, the risk that they both actually lose or end up as they are today, dented and on the edge of the abyss.

Political voracity and unlimited personal evaluation, as well as a notable disregard for side effects, guided the vice president’s operation. And if your way of measuring demand is through the outcome of the fight, you’ve nailed the chip in the box you wanted to fill from the start: the Ministry of Economy. That is, in the space that concentrates those great attributes of power.

Cristina worked so hard to reach the goal that, just when it was time to crown the operation, she realized that something was missing: he had neither minister nor minister.

Too visible, Silvina Batakis took office little less than discarded, after several best-known candidates escaped, one by one, the invitation to ride a roller coaster. Or by putting so many conditions that together implied the same thing.

Incidentally, the jubilee has highlighted a fault that is very much in the personal structure of the vice president: the inability to form their own teams or, if you prefer, a certain disinterest in something that, although tiring, is nothing less than building power.

Although it is, as it is, a machine to fight for power and use power for all purposes when it has achieved it.

It is already clear that the raising of Batakis, former minister of Daniel Scioli in the Province and more recently adviser of Wado de Pedro inside, It was not Fernández’s idea, but the work of Cristina’s finger. Despite this, less than a week after taking office, key government locations are already lowering the price: “Not enough to generate tranquility”, they say.

But if that tenacious Kirchnerist and in more than a dogmatic sense that is Batakis seems little for what the crisis poses, a question spontaneously arises: and who generates tranquility in the Government? The answer is on the street, wherever you look.

In this regard, it is worth pointing out that during the dinner that Cristina K. and Alberto F. shared last Monday, in Olivos, there was nothing like a recomposition of relations, not even an approach.

“Everything ended the same or worse than it was at the start of the game”, The next day he claimed someone who knows that world and worked with them in the time of Néstor Kirchner. And he said worse and worse: “Everything is broken and it will be difficult to put it back”.

Close by this precedent and above all by the fear aroused by speed and voracity of the economic crisis, Cristina and Alberto met this Wednesday evening, now with the addition of Sergio Massa. The report shows that in less than a week they did what they hadn’t done in months and months.

A manual recommendation would say that the leaders of the ruling coalition must find, very sooner or later, a formula of coexistence and basic political coincidences that will allow them to get out of the trap in which they have been trapped on their own merits. already falling, the risk is that the quagmire will wear all three.

For now, concrete data shows warning signs that are widespread and are advancing everywhere.

Since the beginning of July, the blue dollar has risen 34 pesos and closed at 273 dollars on Friday. At $ 300, liquidity with liquidation managed by the companies stretched the gap with the official exchange rate to 137%: fodder for maneuvers with exports and imports and currency leaks that directly affected the reserves of the Central Bank, at the time in which they were most necessary.

Private reports tell us, in fact, that in these eight days the BCRA had to sell 730 million dollars to deposit basic necessities and try to contain without containing the flight of parallel dollars. Therefore, the net reserves, let’s say truly available, would have shrunk to less than US $ 3.6 billion, that is it would not be enough to cover even half a month of imports.

With overseas purchases of goods and supplies covering around 70% of domestic production chains, it is understandable why the Central Bank places obstacles in the use of foreign currency and now also free shop fees.

The same explanation applies to the need to hold energy imports which, between January and May, that is, before entering completely into winter, amounted to 4,641 million dollars and exceeded by 205% those of the same period of 2021.

A preview of what will happen and its likely impact on the economy.

Also tax accounts are out of control, thanks to public spending which is growing by 76% and has already exceeded 5 billion pesos. Here are the stars energy subsidies that Christianity defends: they run at 130% per year.

The point is that, moreover, the government is running out of pesos funding, because the companies that have lent it have already begun to cancel. The consequence is called more emission or emission at the neck.

And in the train of hardships, of course, the mother of all hardships cannot be missing, this is the old and unbeatable inflation. First private data says dairy and eggs started with everything in July, at 6.5% in a week; that bread and pasta recorded 4.9% and 2.8% of soft drinks.

Jump after jump we are approaching 80% per year, if not 100%.

At the same time, amid tightening, traps, displaced prices and growing shortages are drawing the end of the rebound that the government touted as the great recovery and decline in economic activity it booed. The next stage would be superinflation, with a recession and new shocks on wages and employment.

And by the way: who will the bill go to for this 2022, of Alberto or Cristina? Much clearer than widespread, the vice president’s game consisted of constantly kicking the ball into the president’s court, as if they were not part of the same government and you, Fernández’s elector.

It no longer seems possible to always sell the same mouthwash and pretend there are always buyers, even when it comes to a used product. But it is better not to give up prematurely: Cristina has already found the candidate and is obviously called Martín Guzmán.

On Friday he said about the resignation of the Minister of Economy: “It was an immense act of political irresponsibility. An act of institutional destabilization “. Once again the ball was out of her own sphere of hers, even though she herself validated the appointment of the disciple of her favorite economist, the heterodox Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz.

There was something else at Cristina’s this Friday. In principle, a new show of power and another that ignores presidential investiture when he said: “I’m not going to beat up any minister, stay calm.”

And then, when he strut with a “I want to help, but don’t keep my mouth shut”. It’s not a question of wanting or not wanting, this time: the vice president is part of the problem.