Bonds in pesos: the funds stopped the bailouts and during the day there were increases of more than 6%.

In view of Silvina Batakis’ debut on the local financial market, pesos bonds rebounded sharply. Inflation-linked bonds also closed on Tuesday with daily improvements of more than 6%. Investors who started fleeing this segment a little over a month ago are slowly starting to demand this type of instrument again, driven by rising prices in the economy in the first week of July.

The bailouts of the management companies of the Common Investment Funds seem to have stopped. On Monday, July 11, the funds decommissioned $ 1,352 million in CER positions, considerably less than the $ 14,421 million left on Monday after Martín Guzmán’s resignation and the high of $ 31,269 left on Thursday, June 9 at the start of this market crisis. .

In the City, they believe the Central Bank also cut the amount of bond purchases and, after issuing more than $ 1.3 trillion in this strategy, would have hit the floor. A market participant even pointed out that on Tuesday the Central Bank went out to sell some stocks on the short end of the curve, which were the most punished by the collapse.

With a question that some still consider “artificial”, CER-related publications have shown price improvements of more than 30% since the beginning of the month. The rebounds of Boncer 2026 and Boncer 2028 stand out, which have gained 32.05% and 31.13% respectively since the beginning of July.

Is the weight bond crisis over?

For Federico Perez, Investment Manager of Mariva Asset Management, it is too early to venture, but “the market is starting to operate more normal. Investors are not seen in panic mode like in mid-June and in addition to Central Bank purchases, some price arbitrage appears, so we are starting to see more genuine demand. “

There are two factors that may explain this renewed, albeit still fragile, interest in index-linked securities. The first, undoubtedly, is the jump in prices. This Wednesday we will know the inflation data for June, which according to private estimates will be around 5.5% but which for analysts “will seem low” compared to the inflation that is already emerging for the month of July.

There are private advisors who already predict that due to the jump in the exchange rate last week and the wave of comments that followed, the number of Indecs will be close to 8%.

The second point is the official change of strategy in this debt segment. Not only did the Central Bank present a new tool designed for banks to find an outlet for pesos bonds and thus avoid price volatility, but Minister Batakis spoke of greater coordination between the different players to avoid shocks.

“We believe this data bodes well for the CER curve. We hope that the normalization of the CER curve and inflation expectations will contribute to the demand for CER assets,” said Paula Gándara, of Adcap.

For PPI’s Gloria Patron Costas, “the dynamics of the pesos market in these last two rounds respond to high liquidity seeking refuge from a growing face value in the economy and not from a change in expectations”. The economist warns: “We believe it is unlikely that the market will find real stability after the interventions and the latest measures by the Bkra”.