Today we will know the inflation of June: the first data from the management of Batakis

This Thursday, INDEC will release June inflation data: it will be the first indicator of the evolution of prices in the management of Silvina Batakis at the helm of the Ministry of Economy and a record of around 5.4% is expected.

The figure generates some expectations, in the context of the recent movements in the Treasury area. Analysts estimate that inflation will be slightly higher than in May (5.1%, breaking the downward trend of previous months) and significantly lower than in July, the month in which an increase of close to 8% is expected. for the observations that were recorded in the days following the resignation of former minister Martín Guzmán.

According to the projections of economists participating in the Central Bank’s Survey of Expectations (REM), the median of the estimates stood at 5.2% monthly, while the average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters estimates it at 5.4%.

This survey also showed the market analysts’ projection of annual inflation: around 76%, or 3.4 points higher than the forecast of the previous survey. Even those predictions reach 79.2% in that period, that is 4.1 points higher than in the May survey.

Among the computable increases in the month of June, in addition to the persistent increase in foodstuffs, the increases in electricity by 16.5% and those in gas ranging from 18 to 25%. Also, the prepaid with an increase of 10%, schools in the province of Buenos Aires with 8% and diesel with 12%.

According to the forecasts of the consulting firm EcoGo, the June price index will be around 5.4%. Within this result, foodstuffs, which in that period exceeded 4.8%, play a key role.

Among the other estimates on the fate of prices last month, there are those of the consultancy Ecolatina, which predicted an increase 5.3%; that of Analytica, from ca. 5.4% and those of the consultancy firms LCG and the Fundación Libertad y Progreso who predicted it in 5.5%.

At a press conference on Monday, Batakis avoided making an inflation projection for this year. He said that “it would be very unprofessional of me to take the risk today of saying what the projection of inflation is in this unprecedented situation of global imbalance“.

According to the official, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in the prices of raw materials, “we are in a completely different situation from that in which inflationary projections could be made”.

In fact, you have just transcended the variation of June inflation in the US which recorded an increase of 1.3% compared to May, since it affected because the forecasts put it at 1.1% which brought annual inflation to 9.1% :: it was the fourth consecutive month above 8%.