There is no red alert but weak signals that are multiplying: French companies are navigating in an increasingly difficult economic context, which is already reflected in an increase in bankruptcies and some pressure on their cash flow.
Between “the tension on raw materials (price and quantity), on energy that has been reinforced by the war in Ukraine, on logistics, contracting”, this “creates an environment in which we tell ourselves that we must be vigilant “says the business mediator. Pierre Pelouzet.
But corporate insolvencies have clearly been on the rise since the beginning of 2022, even if they remain below their level before the Covid-19 pandemic (50,000 to 60,000 annual insolvencies).
According to the latest Altares barometer, 9,286 companies defaulted in the 2nd quarter of 2022, a total increase of 49% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2021. In the first quarter, the number of defaults was only 35% higher than in the first three months. of 2021.
Jump in collective procedures
“Since February, the upward trend has accelerated significantly with an average monthly increase of 45%” in failures, underlines Thierry Millon, director of studies at Altares.
Another warning sign, this time from the Xerfi barometer based on data from commercial courts: the opening of bankruptcy proceedings jumped 45% annually in the first half of 2022.
Among these procedures, receiverships registered the highest growth (+69%), ahead of safeguard procedures (+53%) and judicial liquidations (+40%).
Accommodation, restaurants, commerce and services are the main affected by these collective procedures.
Corporate cash also appears to be shrinking slightly, with 803 files eligible for credit brokerage in the second quarter of 2022, compared to 645 in the first quarter and 672 in the last three months of 2021.
Despite this slight increase, “the number of files is still much lower than at the beginning of 2021” and insignificant compared to the 288,000 loans guaranteed by the State (PGE) that began to be repaid during the second quarter of 2022, templa the Bank of France.
“I prefer to talk about vigilance than concern”, also clarifies Pierre Pelouzet, for whom “we are at a crossroads”, between an economy in crisis and a return to a normal economy.
One day late, one billion euros less
Thanks to the support measures deployed by the State in the face of the pandemic, in particular the PGE, companies maintain good cash levels.
Furthermore, the business climate is showing some resilience and remains above its long-term average, although it has fallen markedly since February and the start of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine.
On Bercy’s side, we temper concerns. As for the failures, “we are 25.6% below the level of 2019, before the confinements”, thus stressed the Ministry of Economy in reference to the Altares data.
However, as a precautionary measure, Minister Bruno Le Maire announced in early July the expansion of the support mission for companies in difficulty as a result of the health crisis. Initially supposed to end at the end of June, it has so far benefited 10,000 businesses.
For Pierre Pelouzet, a key challenge for the coming months lies in the ability of companies to meet their invoices on time.
“If customers start paying late, we can have a terrible impact on cash flow in the coming months,” fears the business mediator.
“On average, a day of delay in payment is approximately one billion euros that are in the coffers of large customers more than in those of SMEs,” he explains.
Source: BFM TV
