The heat wave also hampers growth and in 2022 the banknote promises to be saltier than during the heat wave of 2003. The heat wave episode of August 2003 had weighed on annual growth by 0.1 or 0.2 points. But, at the time, the rise in mercury had only lasted two weeks.
But this year, several episodes of intense heat have already hit the territory, starting with the month of May, the hottest ever recorded in France. The heat wave episode of June 2022 is the second most intense for a month of June since 1947. As for the heat wave levels of this month of July, they are comparable only with those of August 2003. Therefore, 2022 should especially weigh on the economy.
But, by what mechanisms does the climatic phenomenon affect activity and growth? According to the US Department of Commerce, 70% of the economy is “climate sensitive.” This means that most of the activity is affected by climatic variations.
Effects on productivity and consumption
These weather changes first have an effect on employee productivity. The International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that above 33°, 50% of the productivity and efficiency of employees is threatened. The most affected sectors are construction, transport, agriculture and forestry.
There are also a few sectors that benefit, on the contrary, from the heat wave, such as energy in a broad sense with the production of electricity, the sale of air conditioners and fans. But the positive effects from which they benefit do not compensate for the deficit in other sectors of activity.
The heat wave also tends to curb consumption. Therefore, there is a general drop in clothing purchases, but also in food purchases such as meat, chocolate, but also in fruits and vegetables, whose prices are skyrocketing. In total, consumption had fallen by almost 3% in August 2003.
814 euros per exposed French
Finally, we must not forget the health consequences of the heat wave, such as deaths, medical costs, loss of well-being linked to travel restrictions, etc. Leur coût est impossible à évaluar pour 2022, mais il pourrait être moins qu’en 2003. A l’époque, le danger de santé publishes que représentait le phenomène climatique, relatively nouveau, avait été sous-évalué par la population et par les public powers. By comparison, heat waves are more anticipated and catered for today, particularly with the implementation of the heat wave plan since 2004. However, it should also be noted that the hospital and carers seem particularly weakened, in 2022, after two years. of health crisis.
The University of Aix-Marseille estimated that between 2015 and 2020, heat waves cost an average of 814 euros per French exposed. Depending on their geographical position, not all French people have experienced a heat wave since 2015.
In fact, the departments of Côte d’Armor, Finistère and Creuse have escaped the phenomenon. In 2021, Public Health France also looked at the cost of heat waves. According to their study, these extreme weather episodes would have cost, between 2015 and 2020, around 22, or even up to 37 billion euros, depending on the calculation method chosen.
Source: BFM TV
