Parallel dollars ended the week at around $ 300 and was up 20% over the month

The market he concluded the week by reflecting through his own indicators the main distrust which exists on Argentina’s prospects for solving the problems it faces in economic and political matters. Silvina Batakis’ press conference on Monday seems to have been far away, in which it was thought there would be important news. Nothing seems to have changed. Rather what came was the confirmation of the uncertainty that exists. That means:

– after having known the data of inflation of June this Thursday (5.3%), the forecasts speak of a floor of 7% for this month and the estimates of the economists for the year already speak of inflation that could approach in a base scenario around 90 %.

– the week ends with doubts about the ability of Silvina Batakis, Minister of Economy, to support the to roll of the public debt in pesos. On Wednesday it was successful in its first test by raising the effective annual rate and approaching 80%. The next challenge will be the week of 25.

– In these days the Government has announced the increase in the perception of Profits for the dollar tourism. Are the dollars running out and will there be more stocks?

– Tackling the challenge of inflation and pesos debt will require a high dose of pragmatism and adjustment, also leading to the second dimension of the problems facing the government: Will Cristina Kirchner support future adjustments?

All of these fronts (and many more) are what “scares” the markets and this was reflected again at the end of the week.

– the country at risk (slightly down yesterday) closed at 2,754 basis points. It has increased by 380 since Martín Guzmán left two weeks ago.

– the Dollar blue it rose by $ 4 and closed at $ 293. In the past few weeks it has risen by 22.6%. The acceleration is notorious when you take into account that in the previous two weeks it had risen by 10%. I mean, doubled the speed at which it increased.

– the exchange counted with liqui, used by corporations to transact and buy dollars, it surpassed $ 300 yesterday and closed at $ 301.5. It also shows a performance similar to that of the blues in terms of how much it increased before and after the departure of Minister Guzmán. Since he left, the increase was 19.5% and before 5.9%.

– Something similar happens with the gaps between different exchange rates. Today the distance between the blue dollar and the wholesaler is 128% when it was 77% a month ago.

The distrust of the government’s measures translates into an increase in bond yields that seek to offset the greater risks to which investors are exposed. Earnings on these stocks are still higher than in early June; On average, pesos debt rose 1,300 basis points, CER adjustable debt 550 bp and dollar debt 750 bp.

The week began with a press conference by Silvina Batakis at the Ministry of Economy in which she ratified her commitment to achieve the program goals with the IMF, it is mainly a deficit of 2.5% of GDP. He has not explained or detailed how he will achieve it.

“There are two questions that remain to be unveiled in the coming weeks,” raises a work from consultancy firm LCG. “The first is if the vice president does not start to get impatient and takes away the prerogative granted to the new minister. The second is whether St. Batakis is committed to the direction and firmness of his measures ”.

Minister Batakis will accompany the President Alberto Fernández in Washington by the end of the month to maintain the agencies’ dollar funding.