Tension for dollars: imports broke a new record and totaled $ 8.5 billion in June

Despite the latest foreign exchange restrictions and fiscal signals to the IMF, the government remains concerned about the lack of dollars. In contacts with the economic team, Silvina Batakis, it analyzes the alternatives to “program” the use of reserves and contain devaluation pressures. Talk to the Minister of Productive Development, Daniel Scioli, the head of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce, and the head of AFIP, Mercedes Marcó del Pont, among other officials.

One piece of information that has triggered the alert is that June imports amounted to 8,500 million dollars, according to official sources. The figure surpasses the record of $ 7,800 million in May and is the highest record of the month in more than 30 years since the INDEC series began in 1992. The main cause of the increase reported by the authorities is the purchase of energy for 2,000 million US dollars in May and Junea number that could get worse in July due to the cold spike.

“We are importing about $ 2,000 million of energy per month and total imports are $ 8,000 million. If we didn’t import energy, imports would be on the order of $ 6,000 million, which is perfectly manageable at this level. of exports “, the head of the BCRA assured in the last few hours and indicated the increase in the price of energy which, compared to 2021, grew by 200%.

On the economic team, they think we have to spend a “bridge” until the increased demand for energy for the winter eases. Scioli promised Brazilian businessmen last week that this deadline it will end in 60 days, half September. Car manufacturers are grateful to be allowed to manage their shares to access dollars with auto parts companies. After energy, the sector recorded the largest import payments in May.

To compensate for the imbalance, they now try reduce the trade deficit with Brazil with an agreement in placenever put into practice, therefore bilateral trade is paid in local currency and the dollar exchange can be postponed for two or three months. Scioli discussed it with the Brazilian Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, and would have had the endorsement of the UIA and the counterpart center in that country, the FIESP. Pesce will discuss it in August with a peer from the neighboring town.

At the Central Bank they fear that the shortage of reserves will last until the beginning of October, inter alia, due to the delay of producers in the sale of 2,500 million dollars of cereals, mainly soybeans. To avoid this, the head of the BCRA is working with the Minister of Agriculture, Julián Domínguez, to accelerate the entry of dollars. Last week it accelerated the dollar’s rise to an effective rate of 76% per annum, albeit below expected inflation.

The The shift slide coincided last week with the announcement of the tax packagel limit spending and tightening stocks by making the dollar paper more expensive. The turnstile allowed the Central to accumulate purchases for only 90 million dollars, without reassuring the markets: the blue closed at 293 dollars and cash with liqui exceeded 301.5 dollars last Friday. A) Yes, parallel dollars have already risen by more than 40% in the year.

The new import data could lead the government to define new measures, with a focus on tourism. In the first six months they entered the country $ 1.3 billion for that article and $ 218 million in June, 80% more than in the pandemic. The Economy Minister believes more dollars could be captured if foreign tourists changed their currency at the reference value of $ 127.31, instead of doing it in caves or with blue trees.

The exchange rate gap, around 130%, discourages the settlement of foreign currency by foreign tourists and exporters. And, at the same time, it encourages over-stocking as well under-invoicing of imports, as reported this Sunday by the Argentine Chamber of the Toy Industry. It’s not the only problem item – some imported computer products are already quoted in blue cash at the wholesaler level, a way of not selling them.