The resumption of cereal exports from Ukraine is “a matter of life or death” and “we hope” that an agreement will be reached this week to unblock the port of Odessa, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said on Monday. .
During a conference, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen accuses Vladimir Putin of “using food as a weapon of war.” She accuses the Kremlin of not only blockading Black Sea ports, but also destroying Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure and stealing grain and farm equipment.
Testimonies also claim that Russian troops set fire to Ukrainian grain fields in particular.
• Which countries depend on these grains?
These exports of wheat, corn and sunflowers feed some 400 million people around the world. Among the countries most dependent on cereals from Ukraine or Russia, Somalia and Pakistan stand out, importing more than 80% of Ukraine’s wheat. Lebanon imports more than 60% of its wheat. In Africa, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya are more than 40% of Ukrainian wheat.
Also affected, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Democratic Republic of the Congo or Madagascar. Half of Europe’s imported corn comes from the Ukraine. African countries accuse the European Union of contributing through its sanctions to the current global food crisis.
• Where are these millions of tons of grain trapped?
Grain is blocked at the ports, but especially in the hundreds of storage silos spread across Ukraine. There are between 20 and 25 million tons waiting. By fall, this figure could triple. If the situation persists, these stocks could rot on site.
However, the Russian Black Sea fleet is blockading the port of Odessa and paralyzing exports. Russian ships can enter EU ports if they are carrying food or medicine. But brokers have blocked food exports from some Russian ports that are indirectly owned by Russian state-owned companies sanctioned by Brussels.
• What consequences?
This blockade threatens many countries with serious food crises that risk generating political crises. According to Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, the unrest in Sri Lanka could be a violent reaction to the Russian food blockade.
Unicef sounds the alarm for Africa and asks for emergency funds to help populations threatened by famine.
Ukraine accounts for 12% of world exports of wheat, almost 20% of corn and 20% of rapeseed. For the sunflower, it weighs almost half of world exports. Finally, Ukraine represents 3% of the world’s wheat area and Russia 13%. Ukraine exports 18 million tons of wheat and Russia 34 million tons of wheat (compared to 20 million tons from France). Since the beginning of the conflict, the price of wheat has increased by 60%. The increase is 75% for sunflower.
So wheat is not the only problem. Corn and barley are essential for animal feed. Ukraine and Russia are also key producers of phosphate fertilizers needed in many countries for upcoming harvests.
The European Union has accused Russia of committing a “true war crime” by blocking Ukrainian grain exports at risk to aggravate the threat of famine in the world.
• What options to unblock the situation?
The military option of escorting the bulk carriers by warships so as not to prolong the conflict was ruled out.
As long as the sanctions on Russia are not lifted, Russia will maintain the blockade of the port of Odessa. With the United States and in coordination with the UN, the European Union is seeking solutions to enable the delivery of cereals at the end of July. The options are of course via Odessa, but also overland via Romania, Poland or Belarus.
But all present significant security risks and involve complex logistics. German rail operator Deutsche Bahn has said it is ready to accelerate exports through its rail network to ports in Poland, the Netherlands or Germany. But the railway only allows one to two million tons to leave Ukraine each month.
Turkey, a member of NATO and an ally of the two belligerents, has been increasing diplomatic steps for months to facilitate the resumption of deliveries. Turkish officials have claimed that they have 20 cargo ships in the Black Sea ready to be quickly loaded with Ukrainian grain.
• The Kremlin proposal
Vladimir Putin accuses Westerners of “cheating” by accusing Moscow of preventing Ukraine’s grain exports. He mentioned the possibility of exporting through the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, located on the Sea of Azov, which gives access to the Black Sea, and conquered by Moscow during its offensive.
Since then, the Russian Defense Ministry has announced that a “final document” to allow the export of grain from Ukraine will be ready shortly, after negotiations involving Moscow, Kyiv, Ankara and the UN. According to ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov, the measures should make it possible to prevent logistics chains from being used for the delivery of weapons to the Ukrainian army. This Tuesday night, Vladimir Putin spoke about the advances in the negotiations for the export of grain from Ukraine via the Black Sea and thanked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “mediation” in this matter, during a meeting in Tehran. No agreement has been signed yet.
Source: BFM TV
