Consumption with “helmet on”

By Fernando Moiguer

Professor at UBA and Universidad San Andrés

After years of recession and pandemic, the idea of ​​the “country that could have been” but which is increasingly far from being is consolidated. The imagery of a potential country that its political elites have not allowed it to be, and the idea that the citizen must conform and face only frustration and despair, tends to deepen.

The political and economic events in July generated a greater perception of structural fragility and increased negative prospects: 7 out of 10 Argentines have a critical view of the country’s situation and 73% believe that the economic crisis is imminent.

Macroeconomics is affecting all socio-economic levels and the Argentine quickly and vigorously deploys his survival kit, which has been enriched and improved during the various crises, where the most relevant tool is his own intelligence and tenacity to shovel the complexity of the moment – intellectual skills, work skills, purchasing strategies, savings, etc.

Because if the Argentine knows something, it’s navigating through ups and downs. We have gained knowledge and experience. We are a society prepared for the economic crisis and resilience is part of our DNA, as is teammate and football. Today 3 out of 4 families limit their usual budget, either because they don’t actually arrive or because they are preparing for the cimbronazo.

For the vast majority of the population, consuming is proving to be a great effort. Forced to change the overall consumption and allocate the budget only to the basic, they cut the most hedonistic consumption such as going out and buying clothes. The pleasure they seek to sustain, even if sporadic, is in some rewarding food for the family.

However, there is another minority portion of the population, the upper class, which preemptively limits it. They cut or change brands in consumption who feel they do not add value, generally the most basic, but maintain and even almost exacerbate hedonistic consumption: eating out, appliances, entertainment, clothing.

How come? Any population, having solved basic needs, aspires to consume in three areas: travel, cars and housing. Today those three consumptions are in dollars and increasingly inaccessible. This is the true bi-monetization of Argentina. So the middle-upper classes, with the tranquility of the bases solved, “burn” the pesos bill in all possible consumption of leisure and recreation.

From there it is explained that the bars and restaurants are full, that Coldplay are sold out and that the appliances explode the day after Guzmán’s departure. Without going further, the DiTella consumer confidence index rose by 7.7 points in June and the main driver of this growth is the sub-index “it’s a good time to buy durable goods”, namely refrigerators and LED TVs, because for the house and car do not give.

Yes, people have helmets, but while they wait for the bombs to fall, if it has a weight they spend it, because maybe the war will never come. In our history, nothing obvious has happened and even if we are on the road to dramatic evidence, Argentina can always surprise. Let’s not underestimate it.