It is an agreement without precedent since the beginning of the Russian aggression. Kyiv and Moscow signed two identical but separate texts – at the request of Ukraine, which refused to initial any document with Russia – that would supposedly allow the resumption of Russian and Ukrainian exports of grain and agricultural products through the Black Sea, despite the war that has opposed the two countries for five months.

But less than 24 hours after its signing, the agreement already seems to have lost ground after a new Russian attack on the strategic port of Odessa.

• What does the agreement contain?

Safe corridors in the Black Sea

To allow these shipments of goods, safe corridors will be established and allow the movement of merchant ships in the Black Sea. “Both sides have agreed not to attack” these crossings, said a United Nations official who requested anonymity.

The negotiators gave up on clearing the Black Sea of ​​mines, mainly laid by the Ukrainians to protect their shores. “Removing the mines would have taken too long,” justified the ON, which specified that “Ukrainian pilots” would clear the way for cargo ships in territorial waters. On the other hand, Ukraine has suggested that these exports leave from three ports – Odessa, Pivdenny and Chornomorsk – and hopes to be able to increase their number in the future.

ship inspections

Inspections of ships leaving and going to Ukrainian ports will be carried out in one of Istanbul’s ports to satisfy concerns of Moscow, which wants to make sure that cargo ships do not bring weapons to Ukraine. They will be organized by a joint coordination center (JCC) that should be formed this weekend in Istanbul with representatives from all parties and the United Nations.

A 4 month contract

Ultimately, the deal will run for “120 days,” or four months, which should give time to get out the roughly 25 million tons stacked in silos in Ukraine as a new harvest approaches.

• What were the reactions?

A welcome deal…

After the signing of the two agreements, the head of the UN, Antonio Guterres, thanked Russia and Ukraine for “overcoming their differences to make way for an initiative at the service of all”. Now the deal “must be fully implemented,” he pleaded.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, hoped that this agreement “strengthens the hope of ending this war” that has been going on for almost five months, in one of the most fertile regions of Europe, two of the world’s largest producers of cereals .

… But the effective implementation of which raises questions

More direct was the head of British diplomacy and candidate for the succession of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Liz Truss. “To allow a lasting return to global security and economic stability, (Vladimir) Putin must end the war and withdraw from Ukraine,” she said.

The United States, which supports Ukraine against Russian aggression, blamed Moscow for the success of the operation. “Now it is up to Russia to implement this agreement in a concrete way,” stressed the number 3 of US diplomacy, Victoria Nuland.

The conditions for its application “in the next few days” are in place, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu assured shortly after.

Satisfied but wary Ukraine

Ukraine has been circumspect. “Ukraine does not trust Russia. I don’t think anyone has any reason to trust Russia,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba said. It is now “the responsibility of the UN” to ensure compliance with the agreement, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in the evening, saying he expected “provocations, attempts to discredit Ukrainian and international efforts.”

• What to expect?

Release of 20 to 25 million tons of grain

If implemented correctly, the agreement should allow the export of between 20 and 25 million tons of grain blocked in Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, two countries that notably provide 30% of world wheat exports, has caused grain and oil prices to rise, as well as shortages on world markets.

These exports of wheat, corn and sunflowers feed some 400 million people around the world. Among the countries most dependent on cereals from Ukraine or Russia, Somalia and Pakistan stand out, importing more than 80% of Ukraine’s wheat. Lebanon imports more than 60% of its wheat. In Africa, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya have more than 40% of wheat from Ukraine.

The hardest hit African continent

But these blockades hit the African continent even more, which depends heavily on these countries for its supply. According to UNCTAD data for the period 2018-2020, 25 African countries import more than a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. They are 15 to import more than half.

This rise in prices has worsened the situation in countries that were already facing a food crisis, particularly in the Horn of Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti) which is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years.

Therefore, the African Union (AU) on Saturday “welcomed” the agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine to unblock grain exports, a “welcome development” for the continent facing a higher risk of famine.

• An agreement doomed to fail?

Resumption of bombing in Odessa

Less than 24 hours after the signing of these agreements, the Ukrainian territory was attacked by the Russian army. If a dozen missiles were sent to the center of Ukraine, it was the Russian attacks on the port of Odessa that provoked a strong reaction this Saturday. As a reminder, this is a strategic point for the resumption of Ukraine’s grain exports provided for in the agreement.

Ukraine reacts

By firing cruise missiles at the port of Odessa, the Russian president “spit in the face of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep (Tayyip) Erdogan, who have made enormous efforts to achieve this agreement.” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko. .

Ukraine immediately warned that Russia would bear “full responsibility” if the grain export deal failed. This Russian provocation and the resumption of tensions between the two countries could therefore mean the end of this agreement even before it enters into force…