While Miguel Pesce asks to ‘wait’, there are voices in the government that speak of a deployment

In the economic leadership of the government there is a debate on what to do with the dollar. How it is managed and how the price is set.

Miguel Pesce, director of the Central Bank, is winning the arm wrestling match. He does not want to have anything to do with the cancellation of the doubling of the exchange and for now that situation is maintained.

Other areas, on the other hand, are more in favor of introducing changes. Tourism Case, directed by Matías Lammens and Agriculture, by Julián Domínguez. No one will publicly raise the need for changes in the foreign exchange market. But they supported them in private conversations. They are also in favor of specific measures such as Thursdays for tourists (they will be able to change their dollars at the exchange rate of the MEP) or a temporary reduction in withholding taxes. But they know that none of this solves the underlying problem: for tourists and the countryside, the official dollar is behind.

Silvina Batakis, Minister of Economy, for the moment, answered “no” to the questions on the division of exchange rates. She is shown aligned with Pesce, in tandem.

“We have to see how long,” someone says from the inside.

Another player in this dollar discussion is the IMF.

A source familiar with the deal argues that the agency would in no way accept such a change.

“I think he would support it,” says Miguel Kiguel, a former official who has negotiated with the Fund.

At the meeting of the board of directors of the central bank last Thursday, which lasted more than three hours, there was an exchange on the subject.

It was the day the bank approved that tourists could exchange up to US $ 5,000 in banking entities at a higher financial rate than the official rate. The MEP closed at $ 315 on Friday while the officer was at $ 135.

In the government they admit that Pesce’s measure was not only insufficient, but it will not prevent about $ 500 million from leaving a month on behalf of tourism.

They are in favor of creating a market for chance and that would alleviate the deficit. This was heard at the Council meeting.

But Pesce categorically refuses. He claims that if it were open, it would open a door for future claims. The services, the countryside and the rest of the exporters will ask for it. And the end of it would constitute a devaluation of the weight. Pesce prefers ‘calm’, if that is what the current situation can be called.

Another argument put forward by the Central Bank to reject the split is that the IMF would not allow it.

Martín Guzmán was in favor of canceling the doubling of the dollar. He could have convinced the IMF if he wanted to.

A version by the Ministry of Agriculture was released on Thursday in favor of the creation of a dollar of soybeans. The Central Bank criticized the proposal.

Is that so?

For the bank, the attitude that is valid is to wait for September, when payments for energy imports decrease and the proceeds for the liquidation of the field increase, which are estimated at around 15,000 million dollars. You have to pass ‘the mismatch’.

The portfolio led by Julián Domínguez chooses to be cautious. He prefers not to publicly promote one or the other measure that accelerates the sale of grain through a split. He expressed that he wants the ministry under his responsibility to accompany them with tools and technical data.

Domínguez met with the Minister of Economy before traveling to Rome for a FAO meeting and says he has a “good relationship” with the head of the Central Bank.

In this sense, the second line of Agriculture awaits the consultation of the Economy Cabinet. Prepare numbers on the impact that a possible drop in withholding taxes could have, or a “soybean dollar” that increases the amount of pesos farmers receive today for every ton they sell; the proposal that had been circulating since Thursday and which endorsed Sergio Massa and Daniel Scioli.

In this regard, the technical calculations of Agriculture estimate that 22 million tons of soybeans remain unmarketed compared to the harvest concluded a month ago. That figure corresponds to private estimates. With a value of USD 564 / tn, it is USD 12,408 million.

That’s considerably less than the $ 20 trillion the President spoke of. But the figures are closer if we add 18 million tons of corn that have not been sold (strictly speaking, 15 million have not yet been harvested). At a price of US $ 263 / tonne. that’s another 4,734 million dollars. With a leftover grain, a total of $ 17.6 billion would have been completed.

Both farmers and technical officials agree that there is no speculation about the rate of sale of wheat and warn that the next harvest is 8 months away. For this reason, the troubling doubt they share with policymakers is that escalating grain prices may “put out the fire,” but there could be another crisis in the summer.