Analysts warn that if there is no decline in public spending, it will be difficult to straighten the crisis

For economist Rodolfo Santángelo, the signal of the Italians taking a short break (on Monday they dropped by $ 16 after hitting the record of almost $ 350) says nothing. The changes, according to the specialist, must be profound: lower public spending, respect the International Monetary Fund (IMF), keep the gap between the official dollar and the parallel one below 100% and an inflation rate of less than 5% “.” Those are the great fever thermometers, “I indicate.

In his analysis, Santangelo left out the battle of the country risk because, in his opinion, “it is already lost, and remains for the next government”. However, he vehemently stressed that it is necessary to work on the issue of the gap, of how “to have an inflation rate that is below 5% and not close to 10% as it is now” and that the Central Bank “at least not lose dollars. .

The minimum of the blue that has been experiencing in the last two days – which touched $ 350 last Friday and now stands at values ​​close to $ 320 – he is not talking about a financial respite. “Anything over $ 300 is a lot, it’s crazy. This small economic program must have gaps of less than 100%“he said about it.

For the director of the consultancy firm MacroView, in tax matters, “the pandemic was a problem, it was a blow to the stomach” that Argentina has not yet solved. “Brazil in 2020 had a fiscal deficit of 10 points, almost 10 points more than us, but it’s over and it’s back to zero, and it’s still zero. Argentina blinks and has the same fiscal deficit since 2014they are eight consecutive years with the same problem, the same hole “, he analyzed.

Another problem the country has difficulty solving is the exchange rate. For the economist, “the backlog that was posted last year, the election year, was useless. Devaluing 1% per month when inflation was 3-something was useless. Now they want to devalue 3,” 4 and 5, when inflation is 5, 6 and 7 “. “The rate of inflation keeps you going”he assured, and this is another thing that makes any plan ineffective.

For the specialist, “even if the IMF told Silvina Batakis ‘do nothing’, reality follows its course and takes you forward”, and while acknowledging that the war has complicated the local situation and that “the problem of having to import gas “, he indicated that in any case” we always came here looking for culprits and that’s how we didn’t get there. “We have to take on the problems and face them,” he said.

When asked what effect the famous exchange rate split might have, Santangelo said this type of measure “they are useless”. “The only thing that matters is how many dollars the foreigners bring, where they sell them, whether it’s in the bank or in the cave, it’s the same. This is about having clear rules, really,” he said.

Along the same lines, he explained that the short term is always seen and that it is not just a political issue. “The problems started before Martín Guzmán resigned, so I am against it being just a political issue,” she said. And he added: “We are now paying for what came before. The problem is what we did before, and especially at the end of the pandemic, today we pay for those effects.”

For Santángelo now we need to look ahead: “Economic programs are not made by looking at how the dollar opens today, the problem is what happens to inflation, the gap and reserves between now and the end of the year”

“In the first half, the sales of dollars by exporters was an all-time historical record. The best year for the sales of dollars by exporters was 2012, in the first half of the year they entered 41.000 million dollars, then we went down and we got the United States $ 30,000, $ 30,000 and $ 25,000, this year $ 45,000 million. That is, the dollars entered like never before, what happens is they fall into the sewers of macroeconomic instability. ” , he summarized.

In this sense, he also stated that to get out of the crisis it is necessary to significantly reduce public spending. “Public spending this year will be the same as the year of the pandemic in constant currency, in constant pesos. That is, all that we save because there is no more IFE, there is no more ATP, nor do we have to buy vaccines, is was offset by the two major public spending problems that Argentina has today: subsidies for energy and transport and social plans “.

In the end, he concluded: “Economic programs are not made by thinking about how the market opens today, but rather they are made with a long-term vision.

YN