The Argentine economy is walking on a thread: between the adjustment by Silvina Batakis and the global slowdown

“gloomy and more uncertain.” This is the name of the report of the International Monetary Fund on the prospects of the world economy. It is an update of its traditional Outlook which it publishes twice a year.

Earlier this year, the Fund estimated that the world economy would grow 6.1% in 2022. Four months later, in April, it had fallen to 3.6%. And now at 3.2%.

With the exception of Brazil, destination of 13.1% of our exports in the first half of the year, the rest of the main purchasing countries of Argentine products have undergone a downward revision of their projections.

The United States, the largest economy in the world, is headed for a “landing”. Today it will take a step in that direction when the Federal Reserve raises rates for the fourth time this year. Its economy would grow 2.3% this year and 1% next. China, which expanded at the beginning of the year below the United States for the first time since 1976it is also entering a period of insufficient growth for the objectives that the Communist Party had set itself (5%).

The paradox of all this is what happens with Argentina. It is that if in six months the economists in the world have gone from lowering the growth forecasts of the world economy from 6.1% to 3.2%, the consultants of the city of Buenos Aires have done the opposite: the survey on market expectations What the BCRA does today records growth expected for this year (3.2%) higher than that of December. Yesterday the Ferreres study reported that the economy grew 0.3% in June and accumulated 5.4% in six months. “The only variable that we did not change was the GDP”, says Andrés Borenstein, economist of Econviews, in relation to the behavior of the Argentine macro in recent months. “We leave 3.5% growth for the year.”

There are several explanations as to why the business was kept in Argentina. There are more and more incentives to consume (not to save), Brazil is growing more and there are sectors that have better prospects (food).

But reality shows that Argentina is moving towards an adjustment as it did in 2002. In reality, it is an adjustment that has already begun. But what is not yet known is the end. And in part to understand this, it will be crucial if the world helps as it did 20 years ago.

Everything indicates that this time no.

The IMF expects lower global growth by 2023, a stronger dollar and lower commodity prices. Global performance in 2023 will be among the worst in 1970, the Fund said. In this context, the Argentine economy faces another type of ‘exit’ than that of 2002. JP Morgan expects a 0.4% contraction for 2023.