The government changed the chips in order to get to the elections

It happened to Ricardo López Murphy at the end of Fernando de la Rúa’s government. He learned by going to Chile that he had stopped being minister of the economy. Silvina Batakis made her debut and farewell after assuring the IMF that she would be fiscally responsible. The same was promised to Wall Street funds. “Minister, it’s all very beautiful, but when you arrive in Buenos Aires your promises may be in the air “, they had predicted it

Now the responsibility will correspond to Sergio Massa. For Javier Timerman, of the ADCAP fund, Batakis was determined to cut costs and “not generate debate and blame as his predecessor did.” It didn’t last long.

In the red circle they know Massa well, but there are doubts about what his true power will be. From what emerged, Alberto Fernández ignored the team closest to him, Vilma Ibarra, Santiago Cafiero, Juan Manuel Olmos, Julio Vitobello and Miguel Pesce, who They advised him to continue the same until the end of August.

Congress is assured that Massa will be a super-minister as Argentina has rarely had with landings in the Economy, Central Bank, Productive Development, Agriculture and AFIP. Due to the behavior of the ties, Massa believes that the figure of him helps at a time when it is easier to end the war in Ukraine than to get a truck of soybeans, as they say around him.

A LIDE report between business leaders from Argentina and Brazil shows that the current business situation is 61.5% worse in Argentina versus 14% in Brazil. According to economist Martín Rapetti, the challenge is gigantic “Because to achieve financial stability, public spending must be corrected from the 11 points that have grown above inflation to reduce it to 16 points below. It is an adjustment that emphasizes the political and the social ”, he remarks.

Mercedes Marcó del Pont, before replacing Gustavo Beliz, sought a way out to do so “The adjustment hurts less”. He devised a payment into profit accounts of companies that had extraordinary results because of the war. You apply the unexpected income without going through Congress.

Close to Massa they assure that, above all, he will try to strengthen the reserves, first with practical measures and then he would evaluate the possibility of a jump in the exchange rate.

Antonio Aracre, president of Singenta, was the one who brought to Pesce and Batakis the idea of ​​the special dollar for the field and in the end “This Frankenstein is out”, Be honest. But, diligently, he took it upon himself to try to persuade exporters to advance a few dollars. Will it do any good?

Another doubt is Daniele Scioli. It is curious how he put together a quartet with Batakis, Pesce and Julián Domínguez, which has now vanished. Scioli had added two very large adjoining rooms to his office, where he spent the day entertaining himself. A businessman who used to hang out with him assured him that he fixed something. And they acknowledge that due to his management before Bolsonaro there were no gas cuts in the industries. He received them “Go to the operating room”, in an attempt to avoid closures and suspensions due to lack of supplies.

As soon as the soy dollar was known, there were other sectors that came out to claim advantages. Even textiles, which in most cases have recovered in 2021 and 2022 everything they had lost from 2018 to 2021. Those with local production and little competition between the withdrawal of international brands and the closure of imports will win.

When the government blames them for the increases, there is a sincerity: “We don’t know at what price the dollar will be and we cover ourselves in case of doubt “. Others say they are catching up with inflation and facing Fiel’s forecasts, 8% in July and 92% for the year.

With the escape of the weight, the higher sales that, in another context, should have uncorked champagne, now seem to alarm “spectral replacement costs”.

Almost all of them maintain closeness with Scioli. When the now former minister underwent surgery on his amputated arm in Otamendi days ago, there was an unusual accompaniment.

Scioli met Alberto Fernández this Thursday morning to bring him some happiness, such as the Chinese investment in lithium in Catamarca, in addition to that of General Motors and Ford. The French of Lacoste will also expand the San Juan plant. That is, if they let them carry the essential Peruvian yarn for their shirts.

Marcelo Mindlin, the brand new winner of the construction of the main sections of the pipeline through its subsidiary Sacde together with Techint, says that these clouds will pass and that the country it changes when that pipeline is ready. He doesn’t believe the work will be interrupted.

Argentina suffered from not having it this year: energy was imported at a rate of 1,500 million dollars a month. And next year it could be worse. Gas futures are between $ 45 and $ 50 per million BTU.

In another large office flooded with light, characteristic paintings and overlooking the river, the CEO of an international oil company blurts out: “I keep making plans. We are long-term, this industry has invested $ 7,000 million over the past four years. I look at the price of Brent, the rate of projects and that the rules don’t change. I compete for the budget with other places in the world. They show me opportunities in other countries and I prefer Vaca Muerta ”.

The CEO, who asked not to use his name, believes that between ideological approach and reality, reality will win. Of course, the longer the battle lasts, the worse the effect on a high-inflation economy will be.

By the way, Vaca Muerta has become the mast to hold on to. To such an extent that the UIA will celebrate the Day of Industry in Neuquén and will bring the president of the powerful Fiesp of San Pablo, Josué Gomes, son of José Alencar, the first vice president of Lula. Gomes sounds like the Minister of Economy if Lula wins.

But nothing dispels this uncertainty that will resound tomorrow in the box of the Rural Society. In these hours, President Nicolás Pino reviews what he is about to say. And it’s under pressure. As soon as the soybean dollar became known, Angus farmer Sergio Larreta called it: “We need to explain to society that soybeans are harvested once a year and is our source of capital to meet expenses. and investments “.

He wasn’t the only one. A group of producers, led by Alejandro Ferrero, owner of the Shorthorn breed and who communicates with autonomous producers who are at war with the government, has warned that there is no room for the lukewarm. Pino consulted economists and even sociologists. In the pits and unlike the Macri government this time there will be no official presence.

Bipolarism is palpable in this exuberant rural exhibition. There are anger, record prices at auctions and many projects, all together. The owner of Angus, Alfonso Bustillo, commented together with INTA on the revolutionary project of this breed: to obtain specimens that consume less and produce the same, synonymous with sustainable breeding with the environment in which Argentina is emerging as world champion.

Of course, China worries, which is shutting down its engines in parallel with the fact that it is shutting down for several strains of Covid. This was stated by Sergio Spadone, head of the Argentina-China Chamber of Commerce no entrepreneur will go to the November fair promoted mainly by Xi Jinping where the Chinese receive vendors to buy from them. The lack is because they have to be in quarantine for ten days. Meanwhile, Chinese companies have entered standby mode.

“Argentina it is no longer a place that seduces. Barriers to importing equipment and transferring dividends have paralyzed them, except for lithium, which is looking forward to and are shelling out investments in Catamarca and Jujuy, “he says. To all this, and despite the arrival of Ma-ssa, “the power vacuum”.

From the opposition, Mario Negri speaks of the default of power. Jesús Rodríguez observes: “Politics without dialogue is violence, but it must be done in Congress, at the institutional level”. Rodriguez fears political necrophilia that seeks its vision in the past.

With its recurring crises, Argentina remembers the myth of Sisyphus. Albert Camus deepened its meaning, for “the absence of any profound reason, the senseless character of that daily agitation and the uselessness of suffering”.