Blue and financial dollars rose and the Central Bank sold $ 280 million in just two days

The “mass effect” was cut just hours before the former president of the Chamber of Deputies assumed the post of Minister of Economy, Production and Agriculture. After the summer that the markets have been experiencing since last Thursday, when it was confirmed that the third member of the Frente de Todos would land in the cabinet, this Tuesday they went up the blue dollar and financial dollars, bonds fell and country risk increased.

The most worrying figure was provided by the Central Bank: sold $ 170 million to meet the demand of energy importers and in this task 280 million dollars went away in just 48 hours.

Therefore, the entity that is still in the hands of Miguel Angel Pesce continues to lose reserves. The balance of purchases accumulated so far in 2022 has collapsed 309 million dollarsthe worst record of the year with a currency trap except 2020 (-808 million dollars), indicated by Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).

The plant faces the last part of the year, characterized by fewer liquidations by agro-exporters, with net reserves – which it can effectively use to intervene on the market – less than 1,500 million dollars.

To try to restore calm on the markets in the face of the shortage of reserves, one of the versions that has been authorized to transcend by the government is that Sergio Massa will try to arrange a series of loans with international banks to rebuild the coffers of the Central.

With many reports and little certainty, the blue dollar rose 9 pesos in this wheel and reached $ 291while cash with liqui, the operation that companies use to dollarize, rose 2%, a $ 283.1, and the MEP dollar, which operates on the Buenos Aires stock market, rose 2.2%. $ 280.4.

All alternative prices are still below $ 300 and far from the highs of $ 340/350 reached last week in the midst of the exchange rate rush. But after three downward wheels driven by the perception that Massa would have to face public spending adjustment policies in line with investor and Monetary Fund demand, market optimism began to fade.

Just as until Monday various circumstances operated in favor of the “mass effect”, now some variables have begun to play against it. Global markets ended the inflation-fueled streak in the US which may be lower than expected and stopped sending good signals to emerging countries.

Amid fears that tensions with China could escalate over Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, the president of the United States House of Representatives, the Dow Jones lost 1.2% after four consecutive days of leavening.

Furthermore, the delays in the definition of Massa’s team, so far made up of a few recognized figures, have deflated expectations. Add to this that the new measures have not yet appeared and for the times that manage investors waiting six days for concrete announcements is too long in a context of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the foreign exchange market has been overheated by widespread rumors that they could offer banks an exchange of Leliq (the liquidity bills issued by the Central Bank) for bonds maturing in 2026.

“Operators await the first economic measures, seeking to be vigorous and part of a global plan – not isolated initiatives – that have broad and sustainable support within the coalition so that they can be implemented following the associated political costs,” he said. affirmed the operator Gustavo Ber.

“The government needs to correct three arrears: 1) the exchange rate (stop giving away dollars); 2) the interest rate (stop giving pesos as a gift); and 3) tariffs (stop selling energy and reduce the deficit). The measures that avoid these three corrections are ephemeral cosmetics, “said economist Eduardo Levy Yeyati.

With no action in sight, Argentine bonds fell nearly 3% and pushed country risk again, climbing 0.4% to 2412 basis points.

On Wall Street, Argentine equities moved back and forth, from Edenor’s 6% rally to Central Puerto’s 5.6% decline. Only Merval survived, which after yesterday’s negative session this Tuesday closed with a 0.9% rise in pesos on the Buenos Aires stock market.

AQ