On Wall Street, Argentine bonds were trading in red and country risk rose pending the hiring of Sergio Massa Photo Bloomberg
The bonds have begun minor casualties on the day of hiring Sergio Massa as Minister of the Economy, Production and Agriculture. There is a lot of expectation among investors who waiting for concrete signals to justify last week’s increases.
The euphoria of the first days of transition among ministers ended Tuesday with a rise in the blue dollar, a decline in bonds and an increase in country risk that some versions attributed to a rumor of a pesos debt swap.
This Wednesday country risk rises by 0.6% to 2,426 basis pointswith declines in the obligations of up to 1%.
Argentine stocks on Wall Street started the day with mixed results. Banks, YPF rose 1%, while Mercado Libre led the increases with 3%, but there were also drops of up to 3% (IRSA).
What do the analysts say?
“Today we will know the first measures of Massa at the head of the economy. They seem to go in the direction of partial deployment, reserves in exchange for debt Y adequate promises fiscal future “, they indicated in Aurum Values.
Bonds are traded at parity of 22% (i.e. 22% of its value). Some operators believe that if Massa presents a coherent plan moreover they have to load.
The expectation created on “M Day” is very greatthey believe in Delphos, “so the announcements will have to live up to the occasion. They will be three things to watch carefully of all the measures to be announced “, they indicated.
“First, the fiscal front, where the most consistent would come from cut subsidies for energy and transport. The energy area appears to be the key. The tax target of 2.5% agreed with the IMF already seems to be a distant dream, for which the focus will be on new target value to be proposed to the IMF to reformulate the agreement “, they indicated.
“Secondly, we will focus on the changes to be applied in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of achieving in the short term a greater supply of dollars from the export sectors, and in a possible unification of the dollar ‘financial’ market “.
Finally, they added, the magnifying glass will be on the sources of funding to build a bridge until next March, “a task that seems the most complicated”.
In addition to the wait, “there is also a bit of skepticism”, they say in a bank. “The big question is how far can they go on spending cuts, whether it be subsidies or other. If they don’t announce something solid on the spending side, the effect will be negative.
As for the bond swap items. ““Voluntary” exchanges generally predate “non-voluntary”, because when they fail it is clear that something else needs to be done “, they added.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
