Blue dollar at $ 195.
The blue dollar continued its downward trend: on Monday dropped one peso and it sold for $ 195. This is the lowest value since last October.
The informal fell three pesos at the beginning of last week and remained at $ 196 in subsequent rounds. At the bottom of its wheelthe gap in the wholesale dollar is 73%.
The consulting firm FMyA points that out there three structural factors that reduce pressure on the informal sector. On one side is the Regional trends, that money is falling in neighboring countries, such as Brazil and Chile.
Here is added the effect of the agreement to the Monetary Fund, which led to a drop in crisis expectations. The third reason is the increase in interest rateswhich aims to make peso placements more attractive so that not all savings go to the US currency.
The consultant also pointed out that “some” leakage “of the roll between the official dollar and the parallel could also be added.”
From now on, these factors are expected to continue in the short term, although the FMyA warns that “with a dollar counted in liquidity of $ 190, the offer may be withdrawn because there are fewer incentives to trade ”than when CCL reached $ 230 in January.
Although the start of the harvest will bring more cash flow to the official market, for this consultant can generate some rebound in casual.
“The harvest is starting and part of the savings could start to turn into dollars. In particular, it could temporarily test some moderate rebounds that will take it to the blue in the $ 200 or $ 210 in a short time. But in the long run the dollar should remain relatively stable and lose against inflation. “
The risk in the country is rising
The country’s risk rose 1.7%, at 1733 basis pointswith bonds opening the week back into negative territory.
“Global volatility weighs on debt dynamics that It cannot find drivers in its own favor. The parities have oscillated between 32/33 over the past two months and the weighted average rate remains over 20%. The country’s risk continues to exceed 1,700 points, ”they pointed out from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).
“The performance of Argentina’s global bonds differs from the somewhat more optimistic outlook within local equity and affiliated with the trend of bonds in the region,” they added from the PPI.
On the stock side, almost all of Argentina’s papers trade lower on Wall Street, with losses of up to 2.8%. Merval is also moving lower, with a fall of 1.4%. the