Without devaluation, they try to calm expectations with a dollar injection for the central bank and a voluntary exchange of debts

Sergio Massa’s first steps as Minister of Economy point above all to: 1. grease reserves the Central Bank; Two. maintain tax adjustment committed to the IMF not to exceed a deficit of 2.5 points of GDP; 3. advance with a voluntary re-profiling of debt in pesos; 4. apply toto a further increase in the rate to cut subsidies. 5. Stop financing the deficit with cash advances from the Central Bank.

as seen, There is currently no talk of devaluation, splitting or soj-dollarbetter than that announced by the Central Bank last week.

The reserve thing comes from two sides: the prepayment of exports by 5 billion dollars materialize in 60 days from sectors that generate foreign currency. On this point, an observation. Between August and September 2021 -60 days- only the cereal companies have liquidated 5,500 million dollars. It is true that in July they reduced the amount by 10% compared to July 2021. A priori, at this point there would be nothing extraordinary.

In addition, there is talk of negotiations to strengthen reserves by way of Repo loans with sovereign debt guarantee. There are three banks and a sovereign fund involved in these talks. The amount of dancing or conditions were not mentioned. Add an outlay of $ 1.2 billion of international organizations and others 750 million with CAF.

The big question is whether the reserves will strengthen for the Central Bank to continue selling dollars at $ 130 pesos to importers, as it has done so far. It is worth remembering that in recent days the Central has sold about 150 million a day.

In the government they believe foreign exchange sales will steadily decline from August to September, as energy imports, the main dollar outflow factor, decline.

To stay in line with the IMF, the bottom line is that a spending cuts. To make it believable, the touch of Provisional advances to the provinces In addition to segmentation, specific increases will be applied to households that – benefiting from the concessions – exceed a certain level of consumption (electricity or natural gas).

Voluntary exchange is important. Between now and the end of the year, approx 3 billion pesos. The economy says it has already met 60% of that debt.

Conclusions. There are some fiscal signals but it is not known what can happen with the dollar and the reserves these days, a thermometer that measures the urgencies of the moment.