Economists predict inflation of 90.2% for the year

At the end of July 2022, market analysts predicted that retail inflation for this year will amount to 90.2% on an annual basis, that means, 14.2 points more than expected in the previous survey.

But who better predicts this variable for the short term (TOP-10) expects an average inflation of 94.7% over the same period (15.4 points higher than the June survey).

Furthermore, economists who provide their forecasts to the Central Bank, in their Market Expectations Survey (REM) revised its inflation forecast for 2023 and placed it at 76.6%. This is 12 points above the previous survey. By 2024, the price needle would add 60% (9.8 percentage points higher than in the previous survey).

As for the core inflationthat is the variable that does not take into account seasonal variations, those who participated in the REM expected it to reach 90.5% year over year at the end of this year.

For July 2022, the median of the estimates in this survey was at 7.5% monthly, while the average of the TOP-10 of the best meteorologists estimates it at 7.7%.

Those attending the REM expect a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.4% (0.2 pp more than the previous REM). The TOP-10 estimates a 3.3% increase in GDP for 2022 (maintaining the June survey).

Economists expect the economy to slow down. As regards the seasonally adjusted quarterly change in GDP, growth of 0.5% is estimated for the second quarter of 2022, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous survey. They expect a 0.7% decline for the fourth quarter of 2022 when they expected zero change a month ago.

To consider at the dollar price, the analysts corrected their projections. They expect the exchange rate to catch up $ 167.16 per dollar in December 2022. Those who predicted this variable more accurately projected the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 to be $ 167.57.

Regarding the value of exports (FOB), analysts estimate an amount for 2022 to be 88,322 million dollars, an increase of 600 million dollars compared to the last REM.

And the value of imports (CIF) would be located at $ 79,784 million, which is $ 2,234 million above the forecasts of the previous survey.

Finally, what the EMN said about the labor market and public accounts.

– for the second quarter of 2022 the expected average unemployment rate was 7.3% of the Economically Active Population (PEA), or a decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous survey. Meanwhile, for the third quarter of 2022 it rose to 7.6% and for the fourth quarter of 2022 it was forecast at 7.5%. Members of the TOP-10 forecasters estimate that this variable will reach 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

– the projection of the fiscal deficit National Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) primary rating performed by participants for 2022 increased from the previous survey, estimated at $ 2.353 billion. In addition, a deficit of $ 3.088 billion is projected for 2023, also higher than the previous survey. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable predicts a deficit of $ 2.395 billion by 2022.