The economic crisis runs fast and Sergio Massa has no driver

Also called the ratio between the price of goods that Argentina exports and that of those it imports terms of tradeit is today and for a long time the best you can ask in the world. According to INDEC, the most favorable to the country in the series starting in 1986.

A first measure of that “gain” says nothing less than $ 18,611 million in 2021and comes out of the difference in the trade surplus calculated according to 2020 prices compared to the one that finally existed thanks to the strengthening of the terms of trade in 2021.

Another powerful champion of the same type tells that the purchasing power of exports in 2021 It exceeds by 76% that of those of 2004 calculated at the value of 2024which is to say calculated at constant values.

More pertinent, of course, is the increase in international prices of some key Argentine export products, between the second half of 2019 and the second half of 2022. That is, during the current Kirchnerist experience.

First in the export ranking, soybean meal recorded a 57% increase.

Second on the list, corn shows 52%; followed by soybean oil with 160%, wheat with 45% and, to complete the strong agricultural package, 20% of cattle and its derivatives. All quoted in dollars, in case it needs to be clarified.

The last or penultimate sign of a painting that could very well be titled seed dependence on the currencies generated by the fieldreveals that the sum of soybeans and derivatives, plus wheat, corn and cattle, represents about 55% of sales abroad.

This is, nearly $ 37 billion in 2021 figures.

supported by that tail wind, the INDEC numbers sing a $ 30.3 trillion surplus over the past two and a half years. And in the act they leave a drawer question itchy: How is it possible that with such a mountain of resources the Central Bank has run out of reserves and is scratching every box at hand?

Also from the same bulletin, we have a foreign exchange loss of $ 820 million since Sergio Massa took office and $ 1,870 million accumulated since the beginning of July.

Skip there, of course, a good margin of mistrust and uncertainty that the change to the Ministry of Economy fails to disarm.

Predictably, they accompany habitual speculative movements in trance-like trances “take reservations before it’s too late”, also fueled by an exchange rate gap of 120%. This is exactly how big the premium you get with trades that orbit either end of the equation depending on your balance and are always paid by the BCRA in one way or another.

Here resounds a fact: the impressive growth of imports, in an economy that, although improved, is not flying at all. Says $ 147 billion since early 2020, in assets that have entered the official exchange and that, in some cases, have ended up on the stock exchange.

Late reaction of the government which finally integrates, Serge Massa He warned that there have been maneuvers by exporters and importers who will be brought to justice. It is also assumed that the officials who have allowed to do, in a regime formally full or selectively full of commands, locks and traps.

What is certain and definitively concrete is that, like many today, the Central has hardly any net reserves, of those deemed available, for ten days of import in general or a month of energy priorities. It also has no leftovers from alternative dollar interventions.

It is understood, therefore, that the government has hastily negotiated that the countryside and other sectors anticipate exports of US $ 5,000 million and that it is knocking on the doors of some international credit organizations, looking for very modest advances on agreed credits ranging from $ 500 to $ 1 billion.

There are also other things that are urgent, in the chaos of accumulated unresolved problems, of the errors that are faced with patches or with state money and, finally, of those that make up that dilapidated building that was created during a management this is the management de Massa, Cristina Fernández and Alberto Fernández.

It is called a K nonsense pit that would touch time monumental aids, already unsustainable, to the consumption of gas and electricity. Figures from the Congressional Budget Office show spending of $ 764 billion for the first half of the year, equivalent to nearly $ 5,800 million at the official exchange rate, and real growth, discounting inflation, of 38%. compared to last year.

In principle, private projections bring the annual total to 15,000 million dollars, or 4,000 million dollars compared to 2021. Things from the wide world K, in 2015, at the end of the second presidential term of Cristina Kirchner and with Minister Axel Kicillof, the energy subsidy bill hit $ 14 billion.

Times rule now a tax adjustment which includes a cut in electricity and gas subsidies in the metropolitan area estimated at $ 500,000 million, at today’s values ​​and in a full year. It comes with a loss of benefit that would reach 29% of home users.

All still quite confusing, the calculations of the specialists say that for those who lose the subsidy, paying the full tariff will result in an average increase of 85% of natural gas and another 196% of electricity.

Okay, in terms of move, the antecedent of football that the Court struck on the 2016 Macrista gas tariff: it must be ensured, the ruling says, “Certainty, predictability, gradualness and reasonableness” to allow the planning of individual and family economies.

Another common fact that also bears the sign of the IMF is to nail the primary deficit for 2022, without calculating the interest on the debt, to 2.5% of GDP. That is, an adjustment of 0.7% compared to 3.2% towards which the imbalance is moving, qeu must be completed in a few months and is equivalent to $ 540,000 million.

The series continues with 1.9% in 2023, the result of strict compliance with Massa. Firstly, because it must demonstrate that it will respect the agreement and, above all, because it is crucial to emphasize that there will be no default with the Monetary Fund.

Small big detail on the size of the operation: public spending is now growing by 9.6% in real terms and revenues are down by 0.4% also in real terms. Crafted in silver, the difference represents 1.9 billion pesos in the first half of the year alone.

It remains to add to the panorama the data which, in the most understandable way, reflect and summarize the extent of the imbalances and lack of control that govern the economy.

No riddle, it is the indomitable and destructive inflation that puts the seal on a crisis that burns phase after phase and advances faster and faster.

After a July that according to private studies would have closed from 6.5 to 7-8%, the data of the first week of August respondents by the consultancy LCG grow by 5.3% in baked goods, 4.1% in sugar and 2.1% in vegetables. Still very preliminary, the average rate for the month is close to 7%.

The last survey that the Central Bank carried out among specialists here and abroad predicted 90.2% per annum, 6% in August and variations of around 5% per month from September to January 2023. What can I say, inflation high and steady.

There is nothing, wherever you look at it, that sounds light and everything that exists requires an articulated plan more than a list of imprecise measures. Suspense until the end Gabriele Rubenstein, The macroeconomist chosen by Massa for the post is in trouble for some acidic, ironic and critical tweets about Cristina Kirchner.