Inflation forecast: Winter will be very harsh and spring is unknown

INDEC will release July inflation data this Thursday. It is estimated that it will be the highest since the government took office when it is in circulation about 8% Y something similar is planned for Augustwhen the imprint of the increases amid political ups and downs and changes in officials, it would still continue to show a high trend. Only towards September the price index could give wayaccording to the new officials of the economic area, although not abruptly: economists estimate that by then it will have a threshold of 5%.

From the Ministry of Economy they recognize that (July and August) “will be the two most difficult data”, due to the political uncertainty that occurred after the resignation of former Economy Minister Martín Guzman and which triggered a rush to trade. Furthermore – as Sergio Massa warned – they recognize that the process will take time and will not be accomplished by “magic”.

According to the economist Jorge Neiro which predicts inflation for July of 7.6% and that of August close to 6% “at least” he says, the situation in September it will depend on the implementation of the tariff adjustment announced by Sergio Massa and how the exchange issue continues, he stressed. “It’s hard to predict, but it likely is more than 5%. That would be the floorsaid the analyst of the consulting firm ACM.

With such doubts, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina di Equilibra explains: “Today we are in a very complex situation beyond the support that the new minister has. Guzman’s departure has produced very intense and very volatile weeks and we have to see day by day how the economy evolves, “he describes. In his view,”the Central Bank is still losing a lot of reserves, A sign that the last word has not yet been said on what will happen in the foreign exchange market, “he said.

From Seido consultingMatia Carugatti he estimates that inflation in July is around 7.5% And as regards the evolution of prices in August-September, he estimated: “I don’t think it will fall much below 5% per month”.

The key to the slowdown in prices, according to economist Juan Paolo Ronderos, is the effect that the new package of measures that began to be announced last Wednesday could have. “Especially when it comes to foreign exchange,” she adds. “In any case, if inflation drops to 6 or 5 percent, that’s not good news,” said the analyst at MAP Economic & Business Advisors.

From the point of view of Victor Beckerdirector of the Centro Studi della Nuova Economia (CENE) of the University of Belgrano, “in the face of an inflationary process of the magnitude of the current one, which risks reaching 100% per year, requires a global plan, made up of a set of fiscal measures , coordinated and simultaneous monetary, exchange and income.

Moreover, according to the analyst: “We will have to see with the passing of the days how the rest of the announcements translate into concrete measures and which ones remain mere intentions”, he slipped.

In this context, the latest Central Bank Survey of Market Expectations (REM) was published on Friday, which collects economists’ forecasts on various economic variables. In particular, as regards the inflation forecasts for this year, experts estimate it will end at 90.2%. This survey was carried out in July and represents a jump of 14.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.