Reserves under pressure: in July, imports were 8.15 billion dollars

Despite difficulties in accumulating reserves and containing devaluation pressures, imports returned to record levels, standing at $ 8.15 billion in July. This is a 43% increase over last year, a result fueled by the demand for energy, today one of the main items for which Central Bank dollars go.

The figure represents a slight decrease compared to June, when ethe highest record in 30 years. “Imports of goods in CIF terms (or customs value) in July 2022 are estimated at 8.156 million dollars, presenting an increase of 43% on an annual basis and a decrease of 5% compared to the total recorded in the previous month (June 2022: 8,547 million US dollars) “, say official sources.

The persistent demand for the currency represents a challenge for the government, especially since the start of the financial rush that began in June, which was then transferred to the foreign exchange front. Although Sergio Massa’s hiring has calmed tensions on parallel dollars, BCRA has already sold $ 1.008 million since the official was confirmed in his new position.

The outflow of foreign currency is partly due to demand from importers, mainly due to the energy purchases. This Monday, that rumor absorbed $ 110 million. In July, he is estimated to have spent more than $ 2,000 million. The government is betting that higher consumption for the winter will begin to ease, although higher prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine also have an impact.

On the other hand, on Monday morning, the head of customs, Guillermo Michel, met with the AFIP and internal trade authorities to move towards greater traceability of imports. Massa tightened controls to prevent overbilling and announced that they had been detected suspicious transactions that will have 60 days to go back.

But the discharge is also due to the low supply from exporters. Agricultural producers continue to hold back their cereals pending a devaluation, a measure opposed by the executive due to its impact on inflation and income. Instead, they negotiate “incentives” with agriculture, oil and the mining sector to advance exports.

These are some of the measures that Massa announced last week as part of his plan to build up reserves and reduce the fiscal deficit. In dollar terms, the expectation is raise $ 7 billion through export advances and credits from multilateral organizations. Another $ 1.2 billion could come from a REPO loan through bond repurchase.

“Mass announcements this week could bring more calm to the market, at least compared to the last few weeks. But they didn’t live up to the official dollar side: the BCRA continues to lose reserves and the measures have not attacked the problem, “warns a report from FYMA, Fernando Marull’s consulting firm.

One of the options under consideration is to extend the “soybean dollar” until the end of September, thanks to which producers can access the solidarity dollar for 30% of their sales and deposit the remaining 70% in an appropriate deposit. to the official dollar. This was announced by Silvina Batakis, along with the dollar for foreign tourists, but since then there have been hardly any operations, according to various bodies consulted.