The price of milk, already at a very high level, will increase further due to the ongoing historic drought in France, as farmers no longer have enough grass to feed their cows, with cascading consequences on the set Dairy products.
In one year, a succession of shocks fueled food inflation, between the rapid post-Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine. In dairy products, the price of yogurts increased by 4.5% between June 2021 and June 2022, semi-skimmed milk in cartons or bottles by 4.5%, butter by 9.8% and cheese by 5, two %.
Global warming has also had a very concrete impact.
There was first an abnormally hot and dry month of May, then three heat waves in June, July and early August. The drought is “the worst in the last 70 years,” says Christian Huyghe, scientific director of Agriculture at Inrae.
“Lack of milk”
As a result, pasture production fell 21% on July 20 compared to normal, at a time when dairy cows mostly graze on pasture, according to data from Agreste, the agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
When the grass in the meadows is no longer green, herders have three options: dip into their anticipated winter fodder reserves, buy feed, or sell part of the herd to cut costs. .
With dairy cow feed prices up 25.9% in May compared to May 2021 according to Agreste, many breeders agree that it is more profitable to part with some of their animals.
There will still be milk on the shelves, but a “lack of milk” could be felt, believes Benoît Rouyer.
“In general, the lack of milk will reduce the possibilities of producing butter, cream, milk cartons, cheese… And when you have a lack of product, regardless of the sector, it affects the price”, he explains.
Upcoming negotiations?
With a subtlety: in the current agri-food system, trade negotiations on food prices take place once a year and the prices at which distributors (hypermarkets and supermarkets, etc.) buy milk from producers do not rise automatically at the rate of increase in production. expenses incurred by farmers.
The negotiations were reopened in the spring and the National Federation of Milk Producers (FNPL) asks that the liter of milk sold on supermarket shelves be close to the euro for the start of the school year “against 78 cents on the hard drive,” according to the observations his network made this summer.
In 2021, the prices of cow’s milk paid to producers were around 390 euros per 1,000 liters on average, 4.3% more than in 2020. If the price rose to 427 euros in May 2022, the unions assure that this new price still does not cover their production costs and they ask for further increases.
In comparison, “in Germany, a ton of milk costs 480 euros, in Belgium it is around 500 euros and in the Netherlands it goes up to 540 euros per thousand litres,” explains Thierry Roquefeuil, president of the FNPL.
If France does not reach the levels of its European neighbors in the price of milk, the federation threatens to move to “a unionism of destruction” at the beginning of the school year, he warns.
Source: BFM TV
