There are already consultants who calculate inflation above 100% for this year

Before the inflation figures in Argentina for July are known, which in the private sector is expected to be around 8%, most consultants and banks in the city have revised their projections for the price increase in the economy for this year and the expectation of one of the most important benchmarks has attracted attention, which sees a rise in inflation a exceed three figures this year.

In the last Focus Economics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus, the main players in the financial market had foreseen it both the dollar and inflation will continue to rise in the coming months.

“It seems that inflation will accelerate further in the second half this year, fueled by a falling weight and a spillover from the war in Ukraine. Volatility in energy prices and potential new global supply disruptions are upside risks, ”the report said.

Even if that is the consensus inflation will reach 82.1% this year, there are above-average projections.

The FAITHFUL consultant is the one that estimates a jump in prices well above his market colleagues: he corrected the upward outlook compared to the last report and it predicted a 112.4% price increase for this year and 117.1% for the next.

FIEL estimates are the most pessimistic, but most of the players who responded to this market survey now see rising inflation.

Galician Bankfor example, it has increased its prospects for 2022 to 99.7%; Meanwhile him BBVA expected a 95% jump for this year and a 105% increase for 2023.

Quantum Finance, the consultant to the new adviser of Sergio Massa’s economic team, Daniel Marx predicted a 94.9% increase in CPI for this year, which would be reduced to 70% per year starting from 2023,

what will happen to the dollar

Consultants and banks also expressed their perspectives on the rise in the official dollar, amid strong fears of a possible devaluation of the peso due to the persistent drainage of international reserves. On average, respondents expect the official dollar will close the year at around $ 166.3 and rise to $ 277.4 next year.

“The weight is expected depreciate further at the end of the yeardue to continued monetary issuance and high inflation, “warned the Latin Focus report, which recalled that the Central Bank maintains a managed floating exchange rate for the peso. On August 5, the peso traded at $ 133 per dollar, depreciating 5% since the same day in July. Meanwhile, the market dollar is trading much higher at $ 288. ”

This scenario also complicates the country’s growth prospects. “Economic growth will slow down this year, due to a more difficult basis of comparison and a weaker external sector. In addition to thisuncontrolled inflation, a falling weight and weak macroeconomic fundamentals will weigh on domestic demand“LatinFocus economists warned.

For economists, among the yellow signs of this scenario is the political uncertainty; while the implementation of the agreement reached with the IMF is realized, the outlook could improve. “The speakers see the economy growing by 3% in 2022, an estimate that has not changed since last month, and they are predicting a growth of 0.9% in 2023,” the report concludes.

NEITHER