They warn that the Central Bank has less than US $ 1,000 million of net reserves left over

Despite the truce this Wednesday, when the Central Bank managed to buy $ 15 millionAfter twelve consecutive rounds of sales to supply the market, the Central Bank’s reserve situation continues to be critical. Only so far has the sale of foreign currency arrived in August 850 million dollars.

“Governance is making decisions and between giving a little more reserves or cutting gas and electricity to the Argentines, our decision was to eliminate some reservations”, Affirmed today the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa speaking at the Salliqueló deed in which the contract for the construction of the first section of the Vaca Muerta gas pipeline was signed.

Massa thus justified the negative results of the plant, which up to this year must have seen the increase in demand from energy importers, which has reached $ 6.6 billion in the first half.

Few net reserves

For the economist Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, of the Empiria consulting firm, the net reserves of the Central Bank they are already below US $ 1,000 million. “The main Achilles heel today is the exchange rate, and it is urgent to reverse it. Energy payments are falling, agriculture is liquid even more than a month ago, and even so the central bank continues to sell,” he has declared.

For Esteban Gette, Cohen’s strategist, the Central “it is a delicate situation considering that the net international reserves are around 1,000 million dollars“.

Faced with this, the government has taken steps to bring in more dollars. On the one hand, the aim is for exporters to liquidate their products, in a figure that is estimated around 5 billion dollars. This is why they have given a change to the soybean dollar that former minister Silvina Batakis had announced.

In this line, the Central approved the issue of a letter in dollars that cereal companies could sign with pre-financing of exports. It also allowed dollar-linked sight accounts for exporters who anticipate their settlement in more than 30 days.

In this context, the Central managed to break with inertia by selling foreign currency it was carrying and in this round it bought $ 15 million. Although the data is positive, the market takes it with caution.

From the consultancy firm Aurum they note that “today it emerged that some operations in soy dollars have been carried out, for which, if so, a part of the foreign currency obtained cannot be considered as a net reserve“.

Financial engineering

In addition to the soybean dollar, the economic team seeks to bolster reserves with international loans in which nearly $ 2 trillion will be required. “With the idea of ​​renewing market expectations, Massa has shown financial engineering. He has hinted that there is a negotiation with international banks and a sovereign fund to create a REPO. With those dollars one could carry out a repurchase of foreign currency securities, which are currently trading at parity of 20% “, indicated by GMA Capital.

This strategy has its risks. “REPOs require sovereign assets as collateral whose value is many times that of the loan, which Argentina does not have in abundance,” they warn from GMA.

On the glass half full, “the good thing about the new measures is that they rule out a break with the Monetary Fund, aim at the tax systemthe reduction of monetary assistance, the decompression of debt maturities in pesos and the possibility of obtaining dollars through debt (without resorting to the market for the 2,400 country risk points) ”.

rise of the blue dollar

With the blue dollar on $ 295, after an increase of two pesos in today’s price, the gap with respect to the wholesale exchange rate, which stands at $ 134 reaches 120%. While alternative dollars remain below $ 300, the gap remains large, fueling the devaluation expectations.

“The ineffectiveness of the tightening of exchange controls to cope with international reserves and the widening of the exchange rate gap, the chances of a quicker adjustment or a discrete jump in the rise in the official exchange ratesays Gette.

“Nothing seems to have changed around the relative price distortion in the foreign exchange market, a fundamental problem in obtaining genuine dollars who are in the country but which, for lack of incentives, are not sold. Due to the dollar and withholding gap, the value that agricultural producers perceive today is at an all-time low, ”says GMA.

AQ