Despite the mass plan, difficulties are growing in obtaining dollars and stabilizing reserves

Sergio Massa’s luck could start to change if he manages to activate the dollar wheel. There are expectations that foreign currency will begin to enter this week due to the advancement of exports and the signing of disbursements next Friday for 450 million dollars of the Andean Confederation for Development (CAF) e $ 50 million from a Kuwaiti fund. Savings are also expected $ 400 million in energy imports. And we could add the definition of the Deputy Minister of Economy scheduled for this Monday signs of greater certainty.

The immediate panorama, meanwhile, reveals growing difficulties in raising $ 5,000 million in two months and stop the fall to the bottom of the reserves. After the latest measures, the foreign exchange supply has not increased, producers continue to sell less wheat than last year and the exchange rate gap remains above 100%. Therefore, despite the fact that the Central Bank has been buying foreign currency in the last three rounds, it has been selling since July $ 2 billion in the foreign exchange market, according to the consultancy EcoGo.

Obstacles appear on multiple sides, including the financial city. After joining a bond swap last Wednesday, key to postponing $ 2 billion payments to 2023, banks have not shown the same enthusiasm in the new “incentive” for large exporters to bring in foreign currency. Grain companies noticed this when they interviewed entities to open dollar deposits and ran into higher-than-expected hurdles and requirements.

“Companies took a tour to open accounts and banks run a lot, are a little reluctant, the Central Bank will have to fix the accounts “, complain from the agro-export sector. They then indicated the” special accounts for credit export financing “, one of the patches that the Central Bank launched by more than one week to unlock the foreign exchange regulation in the field, without resorting to a devaluation.

In this case, the companies that have liquidated more than 100 million dollars a year and obtaining a loan abroad or anticipating sales, they can deposit dollars in banks for 180 days, without having to liquidate them (at the official exchange rate). Last week, the Minister of Economy obtained the approval of agribusiness to move forward 1.1 billion dollars. The deal would have concluded last Thursday with the banks, but it didn’t happen.

The Government believes that there are incentives such as foreign trade commissions and a positive margin if you choose the hedging offered by the Central Bank through the placement of a debt security (Dollar Notes). The problem for financiers is that this yield, 1 point above the international rate (SOFR) close to 2.3% per annum, is very low because they add more debt assets to their huge stock of Leliq, subscriptions and bonds.

“It’s all lace (debt), is greater exposure to the public sector“, said a private banker. In another financial institution, meanwhile, they explained that operations of this type require the presentation of sworn declarations, some requests from the Central, which dissuade exporters. “They don’t want to take an Argentine risk, they haven’t decided to open these accounts yet”, argued in the agro-export sector.

Even last Friday’s meeting with the Liaison Table did not produce great results. The entities ratified Massa his distrust of the “soybean dollar”. The idea is that they get $ 110 dollars for 30% of their sales and put the other 70% in an official dollar-adjusted deposit. The truth is that since the BCRA has enabled itthere were few operations. The producers charge a dollar at $ 190 to sell the grains and believe the dollar bill is an unreliable “little piece of paper.”

All eyes have now fallen on the head of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce. Since Martín Guzmán’s departure, he has already made three changes, including the forgotten dollar for foreign tourists.

In Economics they believe it is their turn to advance in new measures for the sector. light, improve the dollar for the industry and simplify procedures. That could be accelerated with the landing at the Central of Lisandro Cleri, one of the minister’s economic swords. The decree with his appointment will come out on Tuesday.

Finally, the amount of energy purchased abroad will be crucial for reserves. This Tuesday it will be clearer when new consumption limits are announced and tariff subsidies will be removed for users who require more electricity than the 400 kw / h limit.

AQ