They promise $ 100 trillion in exports for this year, but dollars are still not enough

The Government are rubbing their hands: this year the exports of trade and services will set a record and this year will reach 100 billion dollars.

The positive data shows that it was finally possible to break the previous peak in exports when they were sold abroad in 2011 $ 97.477 million. But that’s the dark side even with a record, dollars are still missing in Argentina.

A foreign ministry report points out that exports in the first half have reached 44.377 million dollars12% more than the maximum value reached in 2011.

“Estimates for the year 2022 indicate that exports of goods will catch up $ 90 billion, and adding the exports of services, the year will close with a record close to 100 billion dollars “, indicate from the Palacio San Martín.

Thanks to this leap in exports, 2022 will come to an end a trade surplus of $ 10 billionaccording to estimates by private analysts.

This positive result shows that, despite the complaints of the Kirchnerism that there is a “import party”the balance remains favorable.

Why are dollars not enough if the country has a trade surplus? Today, dollars brought in by exporters are practically the only source of foreign currency for Argentina. The country has closed the international credit, so only the dollars brought in by the Monetary Fund arrive to repay the debt that the country maintains with the organization, plus some lines of credit with international entities, such as the IDB or the World Bank.

This implies that with export dollars it is necessary to cover the demand of importers, to sell foreign currency to companies so that they can pay off their debts abroad and, at the same time, meet the demand for hoarding.

In 2020, up to 5 million people used the $ 200 monthly purchase quota. Today with the reinforced trap they can only buy less than 1 millionbut the amount grows from month to month.

With inflation unleashed, the peso is no longer perceived as a way to save and those who have the ability to raise more than they spend go to the dollar either by legal means or through the informal market.

Add to this that the exchange gap, – the gap between the wholesale dollar at which it is currently trading $ 140 and the parallel dollars, ranging from $ 285 to $ 295– is found more than 100%, makes it unattractive to pay off all the dollars in the formal market, which is why there are cases of under-invoicing of exports and over-invoicing of imports. Therefore, not all dollars declared as exports go through the coffers of the Central Bank.

In this complex scenario, and while trying to agree with agro-exporters to accelerate the liquidation of foreign currency, the government is betting on the glass half full.

More industrial exports

Santiago Cafiero’s team points out that in the first half of this year, foreign sales of industrial products (MOI) reached 11.088 million dollars, with an increase in quantities exported by more than 6% compared to the first half of 2021. Among these, vehicles stand out, with a significant growth in value and quantity.

In the first half of 2022, Argentina exported 140,049 cars and light commercial vehicles, 32,000 units more than in 2019. “Exports grew at a faster pace than production, which continued to operate at levels above pre-pandemic levels. As a result, the export / production ratio reached 57% in the first half of this year, as well as 7 points above the level of 2018 “.

The export record is supported by the jump in international commodity prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Although international prices are fundamental to explain the dynamics of exports, the growth in exported quantities is also relevant: the second quarter of 2022 represents the highest export quantity record for that period since 2013“, stand out from the Foreign Ministry.

Another good performing article was pharmaceutical products, with a year-on-year growth of 27% and more than 50% compared to 2019. Therefore, in the first six months of 2022, exports of these products mark the highest level of exports in the last 12 years.

so far this year, more than 7,500 companies have registered exportswhich represents a 2% growth compared to 2021. The current level of exporting companies exceeds that of 2018, although it is still below the record of 10,389 companies in 2011.

AQ