Supermarket sales improved in July due to the “stocking” effect to defend against inflation

In the unusual combination of inflation which – in July – was the highest in the last 20 years (7.4%) and data on mass consumption that remain positive despite the worsening wages, there is a possible explanation: the increased sales in supermarket chains is powered by consumer desire to stock up against inflation.

Right between the gondolas, where the average price is 25% less than in neighborhood supermarkets and shops, sales in July increased by an average of 7.9%, while local businesses recorded a decline of 3.2%, even compared to a negative base for 2021, according to data collected by the consulting firm Scentia.

If we consider the total of marketing channels, in July – the month in which formal employees receive half of the bonus – the increase in mass consumption was 2%, mainly driven by the trend of large chains. And that builds up a 4% increase so far this year.

Osvaldo del Rio, president of Scentia, says that – in the case of the growth of chains – the increase in sales last month compares with an increase of 5.4% in the same month last year. “Which is very rare in the face of the impact of inflation,” he says. “However, to take care of their pockets, people have stocked up on non-perishable products that allow them to take care of their income against inflation that doesn’t stop,” he explains. , the analyst.

This has resulted in an increase in volumes sold in large stores oils (59%); coffee (38%); rice (30%), bleach (26%); dry pasta (25%), yerba mate (23%); sugar (18%) and laundry soap (17%), among others. (see infographic).

In addition to the “stocking” effect, the increase in sales in these mega-stores “can be partly explained by the price difference between the channels, the gap of which continues to separate,” says del Rio. According to data from the consulting firm, there has been a disruption in the rate of price change between channels since April 2020. And that situation arose a gap that is currently 25%.

In this sense, the availability of Care Prices products and the acceptance of credit and debit cards are factors that increase this price gap. The inflation curve measured by Scentia – considering all channels – continued to accelerate to 71.2% compared to the same period of 2021, in line with official inflation indicators.

Another notable feature of last month’s mass consumption was the greater demand that was recorded in the interior of the country compared to sales in the AMBA. Since the average increase of 2% is explained by an increase of 1.1% in the latter area and 2.6% in the points of sale located in the rest of the provinces.

As for the products sold, all the baskets recorded positive data with the exception of alcoholic beverages, which fell by 1.4%. The group of items that recorded the highest volume of sales, however, were impulse items, such as snacks and sweets, which grew 13.6% in the month.