Inflation in August will be above 6% and has a minimum threshold of 90% for the year

The August inflation record will show that the index has already been above 5% for six months. For the month we’re going through, economists expect it to be localized between 6% and 6.5%. And it is expected to close 2022 with a 90% floor.

For Ecoviews, the increase in August will be 6.4%, promoted by Transport, Food, Housing and Health. For C&T consultancy it will be 6.5%while for Marina Dal Poggetto it will yield 6.10% and in Studio Ferreres they design a 6.3%.

Analytica’s prediction is that the August record will be 6.4% Y this will bring annual inflation to 92%which would be the highest record since 1991.

IPC GBA of Ecolatina branded an increase of 6.3% in the first half of August compared to the same period in July. The good news is that this represents a 1.6 percentage point slowdown from the same period last month, when it was 7.9%.

“For the whole month we expect 6.2%, for which we will accumulate 53.1% in the year”indicate from Ecolatina.

In this measurement, the items that push inflation in August are the 40% increase in buses and trains in AMBA, to which is added the round of updating prices in prepaid (11.3%) and expenses (8% on average).

“All this, combined with an inertia that seems difficult to dispel in the short term and a greater slide in the exchange rate, would place the index for the eighth month of the year in the 6.2% zone”, they anticipate.

Within the index, the chapters with the greatest evolution are Equipment and maintenance for the home (8.4%) and Medical and health costs (7.8%), while Food and beverages rise above the average (7.2 %).

Within this last chapter the increases in vegetables (17.7%), sugar (24.4%), noodles (10.4%) and cured meats stand outsausages and preserves (8.5%).

90% annual plan.

“August will show lower inflation than in July, as there has been more calm in recent weeks and this has led to a smaller decline in the demand for money, which had plummeted in the previous weeks, generating a major impact on the loss of power. buying the peso “, says Aldo Abram, economist of Libertad y Progreso.

“This greater peace of mind is accompanied by a Central Bank that he decided to be less expansive and this is the result of the recently announced interest rate hike. Since the little car won’t go as fast as it used to and demand won’t drop as fast, the expectation is that inflation rates will be lower in the future“.

“This month we expect a record 6%. In the coming months we will have to see How does the removal of subsidies affect tariffs? – which will be done in installments – in the consumer price index (CPI), “adds Abram.

For economist Santiago Manoukian, “looking at the coming months, the lack of a solid anchor to stabilize expectationsrate adjustments, reopening of parity and a sustained one peg for crawling (the daily devaluation of the official exchange rate) will contribute to a greater persistence of the inflationary phenomenon ”.

“Even estimating a slowdown in the last five months of the year, which could park in the area of ​​5% per month, we expect inflation to close the year with a 90% floor“says the Ecolatina analyst.

AQ