The UK may not have seen this since the Thatcher era. Several national unions, as a result of rail transport, have decided to strike or threaten to do so. London transport was blocked and several sectors issued ultimatums at the end of the month.
It must be said that the macroeconomic forecasts are not good for London, which will suffer a decline in its economy and a peak in inflation at the end of the year. Although the post-Boris Johnson transition should have its epilogue on September 5, with the election of a new head in Downing Street, social dialogue with businessmen and public authorities does not seem capable of alleviating tensions.
• Who are the strikers?
The strike is massive. Trains were blocked in a major way this weekend, a day after the near total paralysis of London’s public transport by rail workers and bus drivers. Mike Lynch, head of RMT, the main rail union, has warned of an “indefinite” strike if nothing changes.
Garbage collectors have joined the wheel of rail workers, particularly in the Windsor and Maidenhead districts: they will protest at the end of August. Felixstowe port is blocked for eight days at the moment, and while consumer freight will not be affected, nearly 40% of goods moving by sea to the UK will be held for a cost that could reach $800. millions.
More exceptional still, the lawyers are threatening to go on strike in September. The Criminal Bar Association (CBA) calls for a 25% increase in benefits for court clerks. He turned down a 15% offer from the government. Finally, a noteworthy fact, the private sector is also concerned: Amazon employees have decided to join the national movement, as have those of the BT operation (ex-British Telecom).
• Why are they protesting?
British workers’ anger is due to inflation, which is hitting the UK just as hard as it is on the continent: while measures to limit energy spending are slowing price rises somewhat, it hits 10, 1% per year in July, that is, a level higher than that of France and Germany.
Andrew Bailey, president of the Bank of England, also warned in early August of an accelerating trend: by raising rates by 50 basis points, to 1.75%, he announced a figure of 13.3% for the end of the year, added to a decrease in activity in the last quarter.
• How is the lock unique?
The movement has a significant scale: it is, for example, the largest strike since 1989 in the railway field. Also noteworthy is the diversity of profiles of workers on sick leave. As well as the support of public opinion for the movement: contrary to what could have been projected, it obtains more support (59% of the adult population is in favor) than criticism (31%).
The context also makes mobilizations of this type very difficult. Legislation has been tightened since the 1984 (mines) and 1986 (books) strikes that had taxed Margaret Thatcher. From now on, the law obliges the unions to present a notice of strike, and to initiate a vote of their affiliates on the subject. Participation must reach at least 50%. Spontaneous strikes are prohibited, as are solidarity demonstrations: workers in one industry cannot strike in support of others.
Result: the unions have lost half their members since 1995 and now have only 6.4 million. The number of observed strike days has fallen from 30 million per year in 1979 to less than 300,000, against global trends.
• What is the reaction of the authorities?
Negotiations were first held in the professional environment and failed. British railway workers thus rejected an offer of an 8% raise before going on strike, rubbish collectors 6%. Amazon stole from its employees by offering them only a 3% raise. For its part, the Ministry of Justice, in charge of the lawyers, considers that the reforms requested by the latter would cost too much and would imply longer payment terms.
While the succession of Boris Johnson takes shape, the two candidates for the post reject negotiations. Rishi Sunak supports a ban on strikes for essential services, when front-runner Liz Truss denounces the “bailout” of the country by unions. She wants to make the rules for going on strike more difficult.
On a global scale, the United Kingdom will also soon raise the ceiling of its “tariff shield” for energy: the mechanism had been introduced by Theresa May but inflation is causing its cost to skyrocket. Enough to fuel the impact of inflation on portfolios.
Source: BFM TV
