Sergio Massa explores a path of bespoke dollars and imports discussed with the client

A recent survey by the Social Psychology Observatory of the University of Buenos Aires reflects the pessimism of those consulted on Argentina’s economic future and projects it onto people.

Claims 72% believe it “Your personal-family economic situation” It will get worse in the next year. This view is based on the fact that 86% believe that inflation is by far the country’s main problem, followed by -20 points below- by corruption.

The follow-up projection of the consultancy EcoGo gives for August an increase of retail prices of 6.7% on the road to triple-digit annual inflation next year.

As inflation continues to gallop and thins the pockets of those unable to maintain their income in real terms, the minister Serge Massa test an alternative trading scheme that allows fulfill its commitment not to devalue.

The now confirmed Deputy Minister of Economy, Gabriele Rubenstein, who, before taking office, had declared himself in favor of splitting the dollar market into a commercial and a financial one making dollars more expensive to pay for services and tourismthis listening to opinions of colleagues without yet reaching a conclusion that satisfies Massa or Cristina Kirchner.

But the market has taken note of three things that confirm a’s research more stable exchange mechanism now that there is effectively a reduction in the demand for dollars to import energy.

One of them was the confirmation of Lisandro Cleri as Vice President of the Central Bank.

The market interpreted that Massa placed one of his men in the Central, but failed to oust one of the president’s bishops Albert Fernandez, What is Miguel Pesce?

In reading the operators, Pesce represents two facts: the validity of the rigid trap and the permanence of the scheme of mini-write-downs: the official dollar increases by 4.9% in the month.

The third fact of the situation is that the Central Bank has stopped selling future dollarsmainly due to the lack of market demand, which would indicate less expectation that a significant jump in the exchange rate is imminent.

In search of signs, we see a minister groping a “bespoke dollar” scheme. to address the lack of liquidation by wheat producers and the shortage of reserves at the Central Bank.

“dollar-soybean”, “dollar computer”“recycled savings dollar” e payment of “conversed” imports. of some products (whiskey, drones, payment of consultancy from abroad, etc.) has begun to be part of a skein change increasingly complex e subject to arbitrariness.

The case of the “dollar saved” on the possibility of buying 200 US $ at the official price per month (Cuba has just authorized the purchase of 100 US dollars per day) is a reflection of the official recognition of late exchange rates.

Until now, those employees of companies who had received ATP (Emergency Assistance to Work and Production) to pay wages during the pandemic could not purchase these currencies.

But, because the aid has been diluted, now people who receive a subsidy on their electricity, gas and water bills will not be able to buy the US $ 200 because they believe that they already have perks and access to those dollars would be an extra.

Access to dollars at the official price is one of the most expensive objectives of the economy and if not, the government says so, which intends to pay producers $ 90 (for withholdings) for a dollar quoted between $ 290 and $ 295 per. abroad.

Finally, and as an example of the financial holding model enjoyed by the Government, despite the crisis due to the open confrontation between Vice President Cristina Kirchner and Justice for the cause of public procurement during her administration, the increase in dollar bonds has left considerable gains after a long time.

The prices of these bonds have been the lowest (they have reached US $ 19 for each US $ 100 sheet and are now hovering around US $ 25) and the demand has come with the ministerial change in an economy that is still characterized by a Central Bank with few dollars, many pesos and few expectations.