Mass management in the US: mistrust reigns on Wall Street

Economy Minister Sergio Massa refines the agenda of his next visit to the United States to obtain investments and review compliance with the objectives with the International Monetary Fund and already this weekend he would send an advanced group with his technical team to Washington to meet with IMF officials following the Argentine program.

But, beyond the intentions of the new minister, on Wall Street mistrust still reigns by economic and political turmoil, aggravated in recent days by the tension arising from the trial of vice-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Expectations warn some analysts consulted by Clarione, “they are very short ”and want no more words. They want to “see to believe” because “there is no more room for promises”.

Details are still missing, but Massa’s visit will take place in the week of September 6 and in Washington she will meet IMF CEO Kristalina Georgieva and her team to review compliance with the program objectives and move forward for the disbursement of US $ 4,000 million on 10 September. It would also apply for a new loan from the Resilience and Sustainability Fund and may have some extra money at a time when reserves are in the red.

Then he will meet with international organizations to speed up lending and investors to ask them to do business in the country. He will then travel to Houston to promote Argentina as a land of opportunity for the energy sector.

Fernando Losada, head of emerging markets research at Oppenheimer and Company, said Massa’s trip “will likely be more geared towards obtaining long-term funding to develop strategic areas and discuss the program with the IMF than for try to convince financial investorswhich for the moment have closed the doors to the country ”.

The expert warned of the impact of “Recent political turmoil and social tensions”And stated that“ this is an additional element of risk that is not pleasing to investors. Furthermore, the possibility of attracting funds depends on persuading investors on the stability of the rules of the game and the political noise goes against this ”.

“Although the IMF will continue to indicate that it supports the management of Massa, It is not yet clear whether this will be accompanied by new funding “. he pointed.

Jorge Piedrahita, CEO of Gear Capital Partners, said that “from Wall Street it is observed that some mass measures are going in the right direction, such as tariff adjustments, but they are limited.they are not part of a coherent program and are not sufficient to prevent the crisis from worsening ”.

“expectations are too low. Some credit from multilateral organizations is expected to be released and the Fund will give them the benefit of the doubt in the short term, as the IMF wants to avoid causing the crisis to deepen, ”he added.

When asked about the possibilities that Massa has of attracting investments in the current political context, the analyst was pessimistic. He said there may be “some expressions of desire, but I don’t see investors increasing their exposure to Argentina as an expression of confidence in Massa. In fact, neither Massa nor the current government generate trust and Cristina Kirchner’s judicial situation increases uncertainty, especially when she and her entourage speak of pueblada or other similar undemocratic expressions ”.

Alberto Bernal, chief strategist for emerging markets XP Securities, stressed that “Massa has an important team, people who know the market and have a good track record. I think this is good news. Measures they are going in the right direction, but the million dollar question is whether they are enough ”.

Bernal points out that “Wall Street is in a position to see is believe. There is no more room for promises, but Argentina must keep it for things to work out. I think this is the message the minister will receive ”.

Regarding the possibility of attracting investments to the United States, Bernal stressed that “everything is based on a solid macroeconomic structure and this implies that the IMF plan must be respected. I insist: it is seeing is believing, Argentina no longer has the benefit of the doubt on the markets “.