Two months have passed since the resignation of Martín Guzmán on Saturday 2 July. The official’s departure triggered a shock in the economy that included spike in inflation, rising rates so the Treasury could self-finance, and general uncertainty with the blue dollar hitting a record high of $ 350 in July. ,

While Minister Sergio Massa tries to channel all the variables, there was one that he ignited little red flag: since Guzmán left, dollar bank deposits decreased by US $ 1,018 million. They went from 15,565 million in July to 14,547 million on 23 August, although they have stabilized at that value since mid-August. The maximum level was $ 32,000 million in 2019, prior to the August STEPS of that year.

The drop in deposits – in addition to demonstrating the lack of confidence – is relevant because those dollars they are taken into account for the amount of reserves which has the Central Bank.

While the deposits of Argentine banks leave, the dollars that are deposited in Uruguay grow, a trend that is not new and that has occurred since January.

As of December 2021, $ 3,339.73 million had been deposited in Uruguay by non-residents. In this group there are not only Argentines, but they are the majority, about 70%, according to data managed by the financial system of the neighboring country.

Since December, these deposits have been growing month after month, to reach US $ 3,546.58 million in June, the latest data available and the maximum value since December 2016. This amount represents an increase of 6%, or $ 200 million.

The statistics of the Uruguayan Central Bank date back to 1998. From that date to the present the dollar peak of non-residents in the banks of that country was $ 6,198 million in November 2001months before Argentina’s post-convertibility devaluation.

The outflow of foreign currency to Uruguay increased in 2001 with the worsening of the crisis in the government of Fernando de la Rúa. After that date, non-resident deposits, perhaps destined for other more distant markets, also began to leave Montevideo.

Since that peak in November 2001, in 10 months they fell 80%, to $ 1,215 million in September 2002 and to a low of $ 1,100 in April 2003.

From there, the values ​​increased year after year until they reached the maximum of $ 4.7 billion in 2015.

Along with the deposits, many Argentine businessmen moved to the neighboring country. The list includes Marcos Galperin, founder of Mercado Libre, Martín Migoya and Guibert Englebienne, of Globant; the agricultural entrepreneur Gustavo Grobocopatel; Alejandro Bulgheroni and producer Gustavo Yankelevich.

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